Sirotin Intelligence Briefing: February 1–7: Artemis II Slips to March After Fuel Test, Space Force FY2026 Budget Locked In at $40B, Isaacman Launches "Project Athena" to Rebuild NASA From Within

This week's Sirotin Intelligence analysis tracks NASA's decision to forgo February launch opportunities for Artemis II after the wet dress rehearsal revealed hydrogen leaks and pad issues, with March 6–11 now the earliest window for the first crewed lunar mission in over fifty years. President Trump signed the final FY2026 Defense appropriations, ending a brief partial shutdown and locking the Space Force at a $39.978 billion topline combining base funding and reconciliation dollars. NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman unveiled "Project Athena," a workforce directive ordering every center to identify where contractor dependency has hollowed out in-house engineering and propose plans to restore technical autonomy, while promising to tear down civil-service hiring caps and accelerate Artemis and Mars efforts including nuclear-electric propulsion. The House Science Committee unanimously advanced a bipartisan NASA authorization bill doubling down on Moon-to-Mars exploration and commercial services. Defense Secretary Hegseth used a Blue Origin factory stop to push for more competitive national-security launch sourcing beyond SpaceX. Physicists challenged the Golden Dome space-based interceptor concept as prohibitively expensive and technically unsound, while Starfish Space secured a $54.5 million Space Force contract for its Otter servicing vehicle. Our next guest is Samuel Coniglio, space historian and author of Creature Comforts in Space, on the DC-X, the death of Beal Aerospace, and thirty years of watching space dreams collide with reality.

🛡️ Defense Highlights

• China’s main space contractor lays out a three‑pillar plan for resources, tourism and on‑orbit computing: CASC leaders told SpaceNews that China’s next Five‑Year Plan will explicitly pursue lunar and asteroid resource extraction, suborbital and orbital space tourism, and a “space‑based digital intelligence infrastructure” that includes AI‑enabled data centers and edge compute in orbit. The roadmap envisions thousands of new satellites, reusable launchers, a commercial low‑orbit space station, and cislunar logistics as Beijing seeks both economic returns and strategic advantage vis‑à‑vis U.S. and European constellations.
• France pushes a “Buy European Act” for defense and space components: French space minister Philippe Baptiste argued that if the EU is serious about defense, it must stop buying non‑European parts and adopt a Buy European Act that bars off‑the‑shelf U.S. components and ITAR‑controlled subsystems from key programs. Citing dependence on U.S. missiles, fighters and even SpaceX launches for Galileo satellites – and Elon Musk’s decision to limit Starlink use in Ukraine – he called for “ITAR‑free constellations,” coordinated EU LEO networks, and faster consolidation around European primes to secure autonomous access to space under growing counterspace threats.
• World Space ’24 roundup underscores shift to dynamic operations and cislunar focus: Air & Space Forces Magazine’s WORLD: Space 2024 survey notes that the Space Force is drafting an “objective force” blueprint through 2040 that explicitly includes cislunar operations, which the Mitchell Institute likens to a new “first island chain” for deterrence and power projection. The report emphasizes that dynamic space operations – routinely maneuvering satellites in GEO to approach or avoid adversary systems and using on‑orbit servicing to extend the life of high‑value GEO birds – are now seen as critical to fighting and winning a space conflict, with four life‑extension and refueling missions planned in GEO over coming years.

Major Contract Awards This Week:

• Northrop Grumman Systems Corp. – Joint Threat Emitter production (FMS): A $249 million indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contract for Joint Threat Emitter production end-items, spares, support equipment, testing, training, and additional support services for Foreign Military Sales partner countries through February 2033.
• Lockheed Martin Corp. – Surface Electronic Warfare (SEWIP Block 2): A $249 million cost-plus-fixed-fee and firm-fixed-price IDIQ contract for spares, repairs, engineering services, and depot stand-up support for the Surface Electronic Warfare Improvement Program Block Two Electronic Support Anti-Ship Missile Defense System integration through February 2031.
• Northrop Grumman Systems Corp. – E-2D Advanced Hawkeye power amplifier spares: A $198 million ceiling-priced delivery order for 608 power amplifier module spares in support of the E-2D Advanced Hawkeye aircraft, including Foreign Military Sales to Japan, through February 2029.
• Kay and Associates Inc. – F/A-18 maintenance support (Kuwait): A $165.9 million modification for F/A-18 organizational-, intermediate-, and depot-level aircraft and engine maintenance and material management support for the government of Kuwait through January 2027.
• Lockheed Martin Corp. – Mid-range capability sustainment: A $67.5 million cost-plus-fixed-fee contract for sustainment, contractor logistics support, and programmatic activities in support of fleet-wide mid-range capability through February 2029.
• Bechtel Plant Machinery Inc. – Naval nuclear propulsion components: A $69.2 million cost-plus-fixed-fee modification for Naval Nuclear Propulsion Components through September 2033.
• Kratos Unmanned Aerial Systems Inc. – BQM-177A aerial targets: A $61.1 million modification for full-rate production Lot Seven of BQM-177A Surface Launched Aerial Targets and rocket-assisted takeoff kits for Navy weapons test and evaluation and fleet training through August 2028.
• Starfish Space Inc. – Otter Space Vehicle: A $54.5 million firm-fixed-price contract for manufacturing of the Otter Space Vehicle and two option years of operational support through June 2030. Space Systems Command is the contracting activity.
• Lockheed Martin Corp. – F-35 ALIS/ODIN modernization: A $47.8 million modification for ongoing development, installation, integration, testing, training, and delivery of the F-35 Autonomic Logistics Information System (ALIS) and Operational Data Integrated Network (ODIN), including ALIS-to-ODIN re-architecture, through December 2026.
• General Atomics – EMALS/AAG for French carrier (FMS): A $43.3 million modification to advance design and development of the future French carrier configuration of the Electromagnetic Aircraft Launch System and Advanced Arresting Gear through critical design review, through January 2028.
• AeroVironment Inc. – Computer vision and autonomous systems R&D: A $24 million order for applied research and development of computer vision and machine learning algorithms, including integration with uncrewed surface vessels and other unmanned systems for advanced autonomous and swarming behaviors, through February 2031.
• General Dynamics Mission Systems – Hammerhead mine system: A $21.5 million fixed-price incentive modification for Hammerhead mine system asset options through January 2027.
• Blue Halo LLC – Advanced human biological modeling: A $20 million contract for next-generation human biological models using AI/ML and data integration, through February 2029 (options to 2031).

🌐 Policy, Geopolitical & Legal Developments

• Late‑January policy week dominated by budgets, Artemis II, and space‑nuclear stability talks: The Jan. 25–31 calendar features the Senate in session and the House largely in recess as they work the second FY2026 minibus that includes the Commerce‑Justice‑Science bill for NASA/NOAA and the separate, still‑pending Defense/THUD/State “minibus” that just triggered the partial shutdown. Concurrent events include Commercial Space Week in Orlando, the 18th European Space Conference, NASA’s Crew‑12 pre‑launch briefings, and an invitation‑only Secure World Foundation/Carnegie dialogue on “Strengthening Stability at the Space‑Nuclear Nexus,” underscoring how human‑spaceflight operations, civil budgets and emerging nuclear‑in‑space questions are converging in the policy conversation.
• Isaacman moves to “restore NASA’s core competencies” and rebuild in‑house talent: NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman has issued a workforce directive telling every center and mission directorate to identify where contractor dependency has hollowed out in‑house engineering and operations, then propose plans to “restore in‑house engineering and operational excellence” and reclaim technical autonomy in support of President Trump’s national space policy. In a speech branded as part of “Project Athena,” he promised to tear down civil‑service hiring caps, concentrate resources on the most “needle‑moving” objectives, accelerate Artemis and Mars efforts (including nuclear‑electric propulsion), and treat NASA as a mission‑driven agency that can once again design, build and operate complex systems itself rather than primarily managing primes.​
• House panel advances a bipartisan NASA authorization bill doubling down on Moon‑to‑Mars and commercial services: The House Science, Space, and Technology Committee unanimously approved H.R. 7273, a new NASA authorization that reaffirms U.S. leadership in space, with particular emphasis on the Moon‑to‑Mars human‑exploration program and robust support for science, technology, aeronautics and education portfolios. The bill explicitly embraces commercial services “for everything from Earth‑observation data to commercial space stations in LEO,” encourages a growing commercial space economy, and reflects a bipartisan deal between Chair Brian Babin and Ranking Member Zoe Lofgren to keep NASA’s multi‑mission mandate intact while leaning harder into exploration and commercialization.
• FY2026 Defense and FAA bills now law, locking in nearly $40B for the Space Force: President Trump has signed the final FY2026 Defense and Transportation‑HUD appropriations, ending a brief partial shutdown and bringing the number of enacted appropriations bills to 11 of 12 (only Homeland Security remains under a short CR). The Defense bill funds the U.S. Space Force at $26.135 billion (including $14.917B for RDT&E and $4.036B for procurement), while the separate reconciliation “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” adds $13.843 billion, for a total Space Force FY2026 topline of $39.978 billion, and THUD sets FAA/AST at $41.755 million for commercial space transportation oversight.
• NASA slips Artemis II to at least March after WDR issues and pad problems: Following the Feb. 2 wet dress rehearsal, NASA has decided to forego February launch opportunities and now cites March as the earliest possible window for Artemis II, pending deeper data review of SLS and pad systems. Mission manager Catherine Koerner (via NASA’s statement) warned that if the launch slips beyond March, teams may have to roll SLS back to service batteries on the Interim Cryogenic Propulsion Stage, even as new windows between March 6–11 and April 1–6 are being assessed.
• Early February policy calendar blends Artemis, UNCOPUOS, and debris/licensing bills: SpacePolicyOnline’s Feb. 1–7 lineup highlights the Artemis II WDR, a full week of the UNCOPUOS Scientific and Technical Subcommittee in Vienna, National Academies work on Earth‑science applications from space, and a Senate Commerce markup of the ORBITS Act(debris remediation) and SAT Streamlining Act (FCC licensing reforms). Both chambers of Congress are in session; if the WDR had gone perfectly Artemis II could have launched as soon as Feb. 8, but NASA’s decision to slide to March shifts near‑term focus toward policy and regulatory debates rather than an immediate lunar flight

🛰️ Technology & Commercial Developments

• NASA will let Artemis and ISS crews fly with modern smartphones for the first time: Administrator Jared Isaacman has approved “the latest smartphones” for use starting with Crew‑12 to the ISS and Artemis II, marking the first time iPhones and comparable devices are fully qualified for extended use in orbit and on a lunar mission. NASA says the phones are intended to let astronauts capture personal moments for families and share informal photos and video with the public, while also challenging long‑standing limits on personal electronics in crewed spacecraft.
• Voyager and Seattle firms temper hype around space data centers as cooling challenge looms: Voyager Technologies CEO Dylan Taylor told CNBC that two‑year timelines for orbital data centers are “aggressive,” stressing that in space “there’s no medium to carry heat away,” so radiators must dump energy purely by radiation, a non‑trivial problem at data‑center scale even if rockets like Falcon Heavy can lift the mass. A KUOW deep‑dive on the “great data center space race” notes that Musk’s merger of SpaceX and xAI is explicitly about building AI data centers in orbit and that Seattle‑area companies – from StarCloud’s on‑orbit AI demo to cloud giants and Blue Origin – are already treating orbital compute as a serious, if still long‑horizon, frontier.​
• Axiom’s AxEMU suit promises far better mobility for Artemis moonwalkers, at a weight cost: Scientific American reports that Axiom’s Axiom Extravehicular Mobility Unit (AxEMU), being developed for Artemis III, retains a bulky white look but adds advanced thermal control, scratch‑resistant outer layers and, most importantly, highly flexible joints that will let astronauts kneel, jog and even do the splits – a major change from the balloon‑like stiffness of Apollo suits. NASA acknowledges the AxEMU is heavier than earlier designs (exact mass undisclosed) but says it has “extremely high confidence” crews will meet all task requirements at the rugged, steep and thermally extreme south polar sites, and plans to apply lessons from Artemis III to later, more refined generations of lunar suits.
• Reddit briefly deletes Don Pettit’s ISS plane photo as “blurry,” sparking backlash: NASA astronaut Don Pettit shared a rare shot of a commercial airliner taken from about 250 miles up on the ISS, only to have a moderator on r/aviation remove it under a rule against “blurry or low‑quality pictures,” before senior mods reversed the decision and apologized after a user outcry. The episode has fueled debate over how rigid quality rules should be when images are scientifically and historically unique, even if they don’t meet typical photography standards.
• Vandenberg gala highlights 2025 launch tempo and strategic role: Vandenberg SFB hosted its annual Vandenberg Gala on Jan. 31, 2026, celebrating the base’s 2025 achievements in launch cadence, missile tests and training across all three Space Force field commands headquartered there. Space Launch Delta 30 commander Col. James T. Horne III used closing remarks to thank Guardians, Airmen, civilians and mission partners for sustaining Vandenberg’s role as a key hub for national‑security launches and space readiness.​
• House NASA bill orders study of “parking” ISS instead of deorbiting: A new NASA authorization bill approved by the House Science Committee includes an amendment directing NASA to assess the feasibility of relocating the ISS to a “secure orbital port” after its planned 2030 end of operations, instead of sending it to a destructive reentry in 2031. The engineering study would examine technical, operational and logistical options for “storing” or partially preserving the $100‑billion station for future use, though it does not yet change the current deorbit plan or resolve the budget tradeoffs with Artemis and commercial‑station development.
• Antarctic balloon PUEO returns after 23‑day hunt for ultra‑high‑energy neutrinos: The PUEO (Payload for Ultrahigh Energy Observations) balloon, built by a University of Chicago–led team, flew for 23 days at about 120,000 feet over Antarctica after a Dec. 20 launch, using 96 ultra‑sensitive radio antennas to listen for radio flashes from ultra‑high‑energy neutrinos hitting the ice. It landed about 200 miles north of the South Pole on Jan. 12; recovery teams have retrieved its “black box” data module, which scientists hope will reveal the first signals from extremely energetic particles linked to the universe’s most violent events.
• NASA’s “space umbrella” starshade concepts advance under S5 and NIAC: NASA’s Exoplanet Exploration Program is funding starshade technologies – sometimes dubbed a “space umbrella” – to fly in precise formation with future telescopes and block starlight so that faint Earth‑like exoplanets can be imaged directly. The S5 program is pushing key technologies (starlight suppression, formation sensing/control, deployment accuracy) to TRL 5, while a NIAC study led by Nobel laureate John Mather is designing inflatable starshades 35–100 meters across compatible with the planned Habitable Worlds Observatory and even the 39‑meter Extremely Large Telescope as part of a hybrid Earth‑space system.
• Route 66 talk spotlights America’s “space heritage highway”: As part of Chandler’s “Celebration of America 2026,” Lowell Observatory historian Kevin Schindler will give a free Feb. 7 lecture, “(Mother) Road to the Stars: Route 66 and its Space Heritage,” tracing how the highway connects astronaut birthplaces, training sites, meteor‑impact craters, observatories and UFO lore ahead of Route 66’s centennial.
• Starfish Space leans on Google Cloud to train autonomous servicing software at scale: A new Google Public Sector case study details how Starfish Space uses Google Compute Engine and Google Kubernetes Engine to run millions of Monte Carlo simulations and computer‑vision training runs for its Otter servicing vehicle, treating cloud capacity as on‑demand test infrastructure rather than building in‑house supercomputers. The company uses GPU‑accelerated instances to train pose‑estimation models and rendezvous/docking autonomy, then deploys those algorithms on‑orbit, illustrating how cloud‑native workflows are becoming standard even for high‑end orbital servicing startups.
• VC firm NFX lays out the “stack above the cloud” for space investing: NFX argues that space is one of the few remaining “infrastructure windows” open to startups at scale, with the space stack breaking into three core layers – launch, satellites/in‑space infrastructure, and data/compute – plus an emerging application tier. The essay predicts that only a handful of players (like SpaceX) will fully verticalize from rockets to apps, while most value will migrate “up the stack” as launch consolidates and satellite platforms mature, making 2026 “probably the last moment” for early‑stage investors to get substantial exposure to foundational infrastructure before returns shift toward software and services on top.​
• NASA solicits public input on 32 critical civil space tech shortfalls: NASA’s Space Technology Mission Directorate has distilled its needs into 32 technology shortfalls for 2026 – covering advanced deep‑space propulsion, autonomy and robotics, extreme‑environment materials, high‑bandwidth communications, and radiation/health protection – and is inviting comments from industry, academia and other agencies. The list builds on a 2024 assessment of 187 gaps across 20 capability areas, where top priorities included surviving long lunar nights, high‑power surface energy systems, and high‑performance onboard computing for lunar and Mars missions.​
• Armstrong Flight Research Center quietly underpins Artemis and deep‑space tech demos: NASA highlights how Armstrong has provided flight‑test leadership, instrumentation and operations for multiple Artemis‑relevant technologies, from testing an SLS autopilot profile on an F/A‑18 for Mars‑entry trajectories to flying a Fiber Optic Sensing System (FOSS) and its cryogenic variant CryoFOSS on inflatable decelerator and in‑situ oxygen‑liquefaction tests. Armstrong’s Flight Opportunities program also advanced precision‑landing and optical‑communications payloads, including the Deep Space Optical Communications demo on Psyche that successfully used lasers to downlink data from over 215 million miles, paving the way for higher‑bandwidth links on future Mars and deep‑space missions.
• Polish brain–computer interface passes first test on ISS: TVP World reports that experiments conducted on the ISS by Polish astronaut Sławosz Uznański‑Wiśniewski last summer demonstrated the viability of a Polish‑developed brain–computer interface (BCI)that can link neural activity directly to a computer system. The results are being touted in Poland as proof that domestic neurotechnology is ready for more ambitious applications in space medicine, human–machine teaming and possibly adaptive control interfaces for long‑duration missions.​
• Singapore launches a national space agency to capture a slice of a US$1.8 trillion market: The National Space Agency of Singapore (NSAS) will stand up on April 1, 2026, tasked with turning the city‑state into a competitive regional hub for satellite manufacturing, precision engineering, AI‑driven space applications, and space‑sustainability services. Under the Trade and Industry Ministry, NSAS will steer R&D, industry development, international partnerships, and space legislation, building on more than S$200 million already committed to space projects and on Singapore’s strengths in advanced manufacturing and electronics.
• Experts argue “Golden Dome” space‑based interceptors are still a bad bet: Physicists Lisbeth Gronlund and David Wright contend that turning the Pentagon’s Golden Domeconcept into a constellation of space‑based interceptors makes even less sense today, because boost‑phase defense would require thousands to hundreds of thousands of satellites to cover short burn times, while midcourse interceptors in space still cannot distinguish real warheads from decoys. They note that midcourse discrimination remains unsolved for ground‑based systems and that endlessly replacing large constellations of orbiting interceptors every ~10 years would impose enormous recurring costs for a defense that would likely fail against any adversary capable of building countermeasures.
• Hegseth uses “Arsenal of Freedom” tour stop at Blue Origin to push for more space‑launch competition: Speaking at Blue Origin’s Rocket Factory in Merritt Island, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth called for a new era of American “space dominance”, telling employees that while he’s “a capitalist,” the bar for performance must rise and warning against over‑reliance on SpaceX for national‑security launches. The stop, part of his broader industrial‑base tour, underscored Pentagon efforts to certify New Glenn for National Security Space Launch and to leverage a more competitive mix of commercial providers – SpaceX, ULA, Blue Origin, Rocket Lab and others – to underpin spacepower as a whole‑of‑government endeavor.

💭 A Word From Christophe Bosquillon

Upon completing the Artemis II wet dress rehearsal during which NASA encountered hydrogen leaks, Administrator Jared Isaacman announced the Agency moved off the February launch window. NASA now targets March for the earliest possible launch of Artemis II, placing maximum emphasis on the safety of the crew. This is the first crewed lunar flight in over 50 years. Should something go wrong during lunar fly-by with Orion’s life support and deep-space systems, there is no option for rapid crew rescue, only critical systems with ‘built-in redundancy.’

During launch, the ‘abort and escape’ system uses a launch escape tower designed to pull the four astronauts capsule safely away if needed. The biggest scare is for reentry, whereas Artemis I had found that Orion’s heat shield ablation behaved differently than expected: gas pressure had built inside the ablative material (named ‘Avcoat’), which caused unexpected chipping. The Orion’s heat shield didn’t fail during Artemis I reentry. NASA identified the root cause, updated its models, and adjusted operations to preserve crew safety without rushing to redesign, which in fact would have been a major risk factor since largely untested.

NASA adjusted the Artemis II Orion capsule ‘skip-entry’ trajectory, dipping into the atmosphere, lifting back out, and re-entering to manage heating and lower G-forces, which mitigates stress compared with direct re-entry. NASA conducted additional ground testing and modeling to reconfirm the calculated margins still ensured crew safety. Shields redesign will be a matter for the crewed lunar landing mission Artemis III. For future Artemis missions, NASA will improve the Avcoat formulation with better gas permeability control, possibly introduce segmentation or venting tweaks, and refined skip-entry profiles for Orion.

Further, should a major system failure happen during the lunar flyby, NASA will put Orion on what is known as a 'free return trajectory'. This means the spacecraft will naturally swing around the Moon and be tossed back towards the Earth by lunar gravity. This is the solution that provides a built-in safe return baseline if major propulsion fails. There is no such thing as zero risk. But there is still that thing called “The Right Stuff.”

Have a great Space Week ahead!

🎤 Our Next Guest: 

Samuel Coniglio has spent over three decades documenting the private space industry from the inside – starting as a 23-year-old technical writer at McDonnell Douglas on the DC-X Delta Clipper program, where three people in a trailer ran the entire operation and the rocket engines were leased from Rocketdyne. He went on to witness Dennis Tito's introduction to Rick Tumlinson in 1999, run logistics for the SpaceShipOne X Prize film crew in 2004, and compile what he calls "a roll call of the dead" – a chronicle of the space companies that came and went, often without the public ever knowing they existed. Known in the community as "Spaceman Sam," Coniglio is the author of Creature Comforts in Space, which tackles the human factors challenges NASA has largely ignored, and is currently writing a second book on the repeated cycles of innovation and failure that have characterized commercial space. He also designed a zero-gravity cocktail glass based on fluid dynamics principles from rocket fuel tanks – and has spent years trying to test it.

Key topics:

• What the DC-X proved about reusable rockets two decades before SpaceX – and how politics killed it
• The untold story of Beal Aerospace: the largest liquid rocket engine since the Saturn V, shut down because no one can compete with government subsidy
• Why space companies fail for reasons that rarely have to do with engineering
• NASA's institutional resistance to space tourism – and why that's finally changing
• The human livability problem: no showers, no laundry, and baby wipes as your bath for years

Watch Samuel's YouTube preview Tuesday on the Sirotin Intelligence YouTube channel. Full interview drops this week.