Sirotin Intelligence Briefing: February 8–14: Vulcan SRB Anomaly Shadows USSF-87 Success, Project Hecate Maps Post-GPS Future, Musk Pivots to a Self-Growing Moon City

This week's Sirotin Intelligence analysis tracks ULA's Vulcan rocket successfully placing USSF-87 payloads in GEO despite a second solid rocket booster anomaly in four flights, triggering a joint investigation with Northrop Grumman and Space Systems Command that must close before the next national-security launch. The Space Warfighting Analysis Center's Project Hecate is quietly designing a multi-orbit successor to GPS, mixing orbital regimes, commercial PNT and next-gen user equipment to keep U.S. and allied forces supplied with resilient navigation after today's MEO constellation becomes too vulnerable. Elon Musk announced SpaceX has shifted near-term focus to building a "self-growing city on the Moon" as an AI satellite manufacturing hub, pushing full Mars settlement timelines further out. China's iSpace closed a record $729 million round to accelerate reusable launch, while China's Mengzhou crew capsule and Long March 10 booster aced abort and recovery tests en route to a crewed lunar landing around 2030. Russia and Iran challenged Starlink at UNCOPUOS as illegal militarization of a commercial mega-constellation, and the U.S. accelerated counterspace weapons development to match growing Chinese and Russian ASAT arsenals. NASA awarded Vast its first private astronaut mission to ISS, breaking Axiom's monopoly, and Crew-12 launched to the station following NASA's first-ever medical evacuation. CesiumAstro raised $470 million to become a vertically integrated space-systems prime. Our next guest is Morgan Goodwin, Executive Director of the Planetary Sunshade Foundation, on engineering controllable, reversible cooling from a million miles away at L1.

🛡️ Defense Highlights

• Vulcan places USSF‑87 payloads in orbit despite repeat SRB anomaly: ULA’s Vulcanrocket successfully delivered multiple U.S. Space Force satellites to GEO on the USSF‑87mission, but telemetry showed one of the four Northrop Grumman GEM 63XL solid rocket boosters underperformed significantly early in ascent. This is Vulcan’s second SRB‑related anomaly in four flights, again tied to solid‑motor/insulator behavior, and ULA, Northrop and Space Systems Command have launched a joint investigation that will have to close before the rocket flies its next national‑security payload.
• Project Hecate quietly designs a post‑2040, multi‑orbit successor to GPS: The Space Warfighting Analysis Center’s Project Hecate study is assessing how to build a multi‑orbit SATNAV network—mixing different orbital regimes, commercial PNT concepts, advanced C2 and next‑gen user equipment—to keep U.S. and allied forces supplied with resilient position, navigation and timing after today’s MEO‑based GPS becomes too vulnerable. Expected to conclude this fall, Hecate will feed the Space Force’s broader “Objective Force” blueprint, giving top leadership unconstrained architectural options for future SATNAV that are no longer locked to the legacy GPS design.
• Canada’s space commander warns about Russian nuclear anti‑satellite concepts and launch dependence: Brig.‑Gen. Christopher Horner, head of Canada’s 3 Canadian Space Division, told CBC that Russia appears to be considering nuclear weapons targeted at satellites, calling such a move “catastrophic” because it could destroy the communications and GPS systems on which daily life and military operations rely. He backed NATO Secretary‑General Mark Rutte’s warning that any such deployment would violate the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, and argued Canada must both work with partners to deter it and invest the C$182.6 million over three years in “sovereign space capability” budgeted for domestic launch to avoid being crowded out as demand for services from SpaceX, Blue Origin and Rocket Lab grows.
• Russia and Iran put Starlink in the dock at UN, accusing it of illegal “militarization”: At a UN Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space session in Vienna, Iranian diplomats branded Starlink’s service in Iran an “illegal operation” that violates sovereignty and constitutes “unauthorized military use of a commercial satellite mega‑constellation,” while Russia suggested the network may breach the Outer Space Treaty’s requirement that activities benefit all states. Citing roughly 50,000 smuggled Starlink terminals used by Iranian protesters to bypass blackouts and reports that Russian forces leveraged Starlink in Ukraine before Musk moved to cut off unauthorized access, Moscow argued that privately run mega‑constellations pose risks to space sustainability and should be more tightly regulated under international law.
• U.S. accelerates counterspace weapons to match China and Russia’s ASAT arsenals: A Washington Times deep dive says the Space Force, under new Trump‑era guidance, is fielding three offensive electronic jammers and racing to expand a full spectrum of counterspace capabilities—from jamming and directed‑energy systems to direct‑ascent and co‑orbital ASATs—aimed at deterring or defeating Chinese and Russian threats. The piece notes that while the U.S. currently acknowledges only three offensive systems, it has tested both co‑orbital and direct‑ascent ASATs and could, if Golden Dome proceeds, field orbital interceptors that double as space weapons, even as China already deploys multiple ground‑based ASAT missiles, robotic “grappler” satellites and sophisticated EW/laser systems to blind or destroy U.S. space assets.

Major Contract Awards This Week:

• RTX Corp. – F135 propulsion system long lead materials: A $230.6 million fixed-price-incentive contract for long lead time materials for 138 F135 Lot 20 propulsion systems supporting the Air Force, Marine Corps, Navy, non-DoD partners, and FMS customers, through May 2031.
• Southwest Range Services LLC – White Sands Missile Range mission support: A $445.9 million cost-plus-fixed-fee contract for mission support services at White Sands Missile Range, through July 2031.
• PeopleTec Inc. – Missile Defense Agency model-based systems engineering: A $48.1 million IDIQ contract for advanced model-based systems engineering, digital capability development, and integrated modeling supporting defensive posture against ballistic, hypersonic, and advanced threats, through five years after award.
• BAE Systems Inc. – Counter-UAS weapon systems: A $145 million ceiling IDIQ contract (with $66.7 million initial delivery order) for development, manufacturing, and delivery of Counter Unmanned Aerial Systems weapon systems, through February 2031.
• Collins Aerospace (Goodrich Corp.) – F-15 heat sinks performance-based support: A $23.8 million modification exercising a four-year option for F-15 heat sink support, through February 2030.
• Nebraska Strategic Research Institute – USSTRATCOM UARC: A $499.3 million ceiling IDIQ University Affiliated Research Center contract for essential engineering, research, and development capabilities for U.S. Strategic Command, five-year base plus five-year option through 2036.
• Lockheed Martin Missiles and Fire Control – JASSM/LRASM large lot procurement: A $50.5 million firm-fixed-price modification for the Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile and Long-Range Anti-Ship Missile large lot procurement, bringing total contract value to $9.63 billion, through August 2029.
• Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Co. – F-35 electromagnetic environmental effects testing: A $24.6 million modification for engineering, ground test software, maintenance, and troubleshooting for F-35 production acceptance compliance tests, through June 2027.
• Lockheed Martin Rotary and Mission Systems – AEGIS development and test sites O&M (FMS): A $26.3 million cost-plus-incentive-fee modification for AEGIS development and test sites operation and maintenance supporting Japan, Korea, Canada, Australia, Norway, Germany, and Spain, through January 2027.

🌐 Policy, Geopolitical & Legal Developments

• Russia and Iran put Starlink in the dock at UN, accusing it of illegal “militarization”: At a UN Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space session in Vienna, Iranian diplomats branded Starlink’s service in Iran an “illegal operation” that violates sovereignty and constitutes “unauthorized military use of a commercial satellite mega‑constellation,” while Russia suggested the network may breach the Outer Space Treaty’s requirement that activities benefit all states. Citing roughly 50,000 smuggled Starlink terminals used by Iranian protesters to bypass blackouts and reports that Russian forces leveraged Starlink in Ukraine before Musk moved to cut off unauthorized access, Moscow argued that privately run mega‑constellations pose risks to space sustainability and should be more tightly regulated under international law.
• Whitmer’s new plan positions Michigan as a “defense and aerospace innovation state”: Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s statewide strategy (building on the Office of Defense and Aerospace Innovation and the designation of the National All‑Domain Warfighting Center as a national drone test range) aims to leverage Michigan’s $30 billion aerospace/defense economic footprint into more UAS, counter‑UAS, space and advanced air‑mobility work. The plan touts permissive test ranges, strong automotive/manufacturing know‑how, and new advanced air‑mobility initiatives as reasons Michigan can anchor future hypersonics, autonomy and space‑related programs.
• Senior enlisted leaders tell Senate that quality of life is as critical as new weapons: In joint testimony, Chief Master Sgt. of the Air Force David Wolfe and Chief Master Sgt. of the Space Force John Bentivegna stressed that pay, housing, food security and childcare are “maintenance for the human weapons system,” warning that family instability and financial stress directly degrade readiness. Bentivegna thanked Congress for recent pay raises but urged continued focus on living wages, affordable childcare and uninterrupted pay, noting that Guardians’ ability to focus on complex missions depends on solving these quality‑of‑life issues.
• UNO’s Space and Defense journal spotlights multi‑domain deterrence and space policy: The University of Nebraska Omaha’s Space and Defense journal, co‑edited with the U.S. Air Force Academy’s Eisenhower Center, remains a peer‑reviewed forum on space, deterrence, and national‑security strategy, with the current issue (Vol. 16, No. 2, Fall 2025) extending a recent Arctic‑security special issue into broader work on space policy and emerging domains. Its aims and scope emphasize interdisciplinary analysis that connects professional military practitioners with academic researchers on defense, security and space‑policy problems.
• Musk pivots near‑term vision to a “self‑growing” Moon city for AI satellite production: In a February 8 post amplified by SpacePolicyOnline, Elon Musk said SpaceX has “shifted focus to building a self‑growing city on the Moon” that can be achieved in under 10 years, while Mars settlement is now pushed to “about 5 to 7 years” from first flights and full build‑out 20+ years away. He frames the Moon base as a manufacturing hub for AI satellites and a mass driver to fling hardware into deep space, arguing that launch windows every ~10 days and two‑day trip times make lunar iteration far faster than Mars, even as Starship remains NASA’s contracted Human Landing System for Artemis.
• Week of Feb. 8–14 space‑policy agenda dominated by Crew‑12, DISC, and cislunar PNT: SpacePolicyOnline’s calendar highlights the Crew‑12 launch and docking, the Defense & Intelligence Space Conference (DISC) in Reston, continued meetings of the UNCOPUOS Scientific and Technical Subcommittee in Vienna, and a Cislunar PNT Workshop focused on navigation architectures beyond GEO. Additional events include ESPI’s webinar on the future of European access to space, the 2026 SmallSat Symposium, and a CSIS session marking one year of the Golden Dome missile‑defense initiative—together underscoring how human spaceflight, cislunar navigation, industrial‑base resilience, and missile defense are converging in the policy conversation this week.

🛰️ Technology & Commercial Developments

• China’s iSpace raises $729M to accelerate reusable launch family: Chinese private launch firm iSpace has closed a record $729 million Series D++ round to fund development of its Hyperbola family of reusable rockets, expand production in Beijing and across China, and push toward routine first‑stage recovery and reuse. The raise, one of the largest ever for a commercial launch startup, is explicitly framed as helping China keep pace with SpaceX by fielding domestic reusable vehicles that can serve both commercial and state missions.
• China’s next‑gen crewed‑lunar stack aces abort and booster‑recovery test: China conducted a key test in which its Mengzhou next‑generation crew capsule performed a successful in‑flight abort and splashdown while the Long March 10 first stage executed a controlled descent and ocean landing, demonstrating both astronaut safety and early reusability concepts. The test is a major milestone toward China’s goal of landing taikonauts on the Moon around 2030, validating hardware that will underpin the crewed lunar architecture and overlapping efforts on a reusable spaceplane and orbital test vehicles.​
• Vast wins NASA’s sixth private astronaut mission to ISS, challenging Axiom’s monopoly: NASA has ordered its sixth private astronaut mission (PAM‑6) from Vast, targeting a two‑week Crew Dragon flight to the ISS in summer 2027, the company’s first ISS crewed mission after four earlier flights went solely to competitor Axiom. Vast will propose four crewmembers, buy mission services and consumables from NASA, and use the flight to gain human‑spaceflight operations experience as it prepares its own Haven‑1/Haven‑2 stations, deepening ties with NASA just as Phase 2 Commercial LEO Destinations awards are due.
• Launch leaders split on how to compete with SpaceX in an overheated market: At a SpaceNews event, executives agreed that demand for launch “exceeds supply,” but disagreed on strategy: some argued you simply undercut Falcon 9 prices where possible, others said the only viable path is differentiation on schedule assurance, mission tailoring, and non‑price factors like ITAR‑free options or vertical integration. Several warned that trying to match SpaceX on price alone is suicidal, pushing smaller providers toward niche plays (rapid‑response, national‑security, orbits F9 can’t easily serve) while they race to close reliability and cadence gaps.
• New missile‑defense startup pitches particle‑cloud interceptors for hypersonic threats: A SpaceNews brief previews a startup concept in which space‑based interceptors actively track hypersonic weapons and, just before impact, release a “large particle cloud” that the incoming vehicle plows through, shredding it via high‑velocity collisions rather than a traditional hit‑to‑kill strike. The firm claims this could relax guidance and discrimination demands compared to classic interceptors, but details on constellation size, debris management, and policy implications are still sparse, and the approach will face scrutiny in upcoming tech and arms‑control debates.
• Umbra invests $6.75M in new Reston facility, adding 100+ space‑tech jobs in Northern Virginia: SAR and “resilient satellite systems” provider Umbra is opening a 20,000‑square‑foot office in Reston, Virginia, as part of a $6.75 million expansion that will create more than 100 high‑tech jobs and deepen its presence in the DC‑area space and defense corridor. State and local leaders frame the move as further proof that Fairfax County—now home to 150+ space‑related companies—has become a major U.S. hub for national‑security space work, thanks to proximity to federal customers and a deep technical talent pool.
• ESA Phi‑Lab Ireland launches as national platform for space‑tech translation: ESA has officially opened Phi‑Lab Ireland at Irish Manufacturing Research in Mullingar, a node in the Phi‑LabNET network meant to bridge cutting‑edge research and commercial needs in areas like advanced manufacturing, materials discovery, AI, quantum and robotics. Backed by Ireland’s record €170 million commitment to ESA over five years, the lab will help Irish and other European firms mature technologies for launchers, satellites and space operations—building on existing Irish contributions to Ariane 6 hardware (Réaltra) and Gateway systems (Skytek) and aiming to turn research into high‑value jobs and exports.
• Omnigeniq uses space‑grade protein models to widen “druggable” targets: Omnigeniq’s deterministic protein‑folding and computational‑biology workflow is building structure models designed to remain stable under extreme conditions—including microgravity and radiation—so pharma can explore non‑traditional binding pockets and conformations that standard Earth‑tuned models often miss. By combining ML‑driven structure prediction with high‑throughput docking and simulation, the company argues it can expand the definition of “druggability” to include shapes and dynamics relevant to both terrestrial disease targets and future in‑space biomanufacturing.
• India’s GalaxEye signs landmark imagery‑reseller deal with NSIL: Bengaluru startup GalaxEye has inked a first‑of‑its‑kind partnership with NewSpace India Limited (NSIL) to have the state‑owned marketing arm resell its advanced Earth‑observation products, including SyncFused OptoSAR data that fuses optical and SAR imagery. The agreement gives GalaxEye national distribution into sectors like agriculture and disaster management and is billed as a model for how India’s new space policy can link private EO operators with government channels to boost both innovation and developmental impact.​
• New seismic technique tracks falling space debris in near real time: Johns Hopkins and collaborating researchers showed that global seismic networks can hear and reconstruct breakup sequences as satellites and rocket bodies reenter, providing a post‑entry trajectory that complements pre‑entry radar predictions and sharply narrows impact zones. Because seismic waves capture the actual fragmentation path—even at night or through plasma blackout—the method can cut localization times from days to on the order of 100 seconds, which is critical when debris may contain hazardous or radioactive materials.
• Deep Space Energy raises €930K to mature radioisotope power for satellites and the Moon: Latvian startup Deep Space Energy closed a €930,000 pre‑seed round to move its radioisotope‑based generator from lab validation toward industrial implementation as a robust power source for satellites and future lunar infrastructure. Investors see a strategic opening as multi‑week lunar nights and harsh temperatures limit solar‑plus‑battery systems; long‑lived radioisotope units could keep rovers, instruments and outposts operating continuously and strengthen Europe’s autonomy in space and defense energy systems.
• CesiumAstro secures $470M “scale moment” to become a full mission prime: Austin‑based CesiumAstro, known for software‑defined active phased‑array payloads, has raised $470 million in growth capital—$270 million equity led by Trousdale Ventures and strategic investors such as Airbus Ventures, Woven Capital and Japan’s DBJ, plus $200 million in U.S. EXIM financing. The company will use the funds to build a 270,000‑square‑foot campus near Austin to consolidate engineering, electronics manufacturing and satellite production, and to shift from supplying payloads to delivering end‑to‑end missions as a vertically integrated space‑systems provider.
• Deep Space Energy’s RTALIG aims for 5x‑more‑efficient radioisotope power: Latvian‑British startup Deep Space Energy has closed a €930K pre‑seed round (about €350K private plus €580K ESA contracts and grants) to mature its Radioisotope Thermo‑Acoustic Linear Induction Generator (RTALIG), which converts decay heat to electricity at roughly 25% efficiency—delivering comparable power with about one‑fifth the fuel of classic RTGs. Using isotopes such as Am‑241, Pu‑238 and Sr‑90 and a single moving piston to cut wear, the company is targeting backup power for resilient satellites and long‑night‑surviving lunar rovers under multiple ESA development contracts.
• Software‑defined ground and on‑orbit processing emerge as space‑defense front lines: Reporting from the SmallSat Symposium describes how DoD and IC customers are shifting from fixed, hardware‑heavy ground stations to virtualized modems and ground segments that run in cloud containers and can be “spun up” anywhere, making it harder for adversaries to target a single ground node. Panelists highlighted fused SAR, RF and optical analytics driving near‑real‑time targeting, and warned that as industry races toward autonomous kill chains, legacy engineering tools and weak verification pipelines risk “garbage‑in” AI decisions unless software quality catches up with ambition.
• New crew launches to ISS after NASA’s first‑ever medical evacuation shortens prior mission: SpaceX has launched a Crew Dragon from Cape Canaveral carrying Americans Jessica Meir and Jack Hathaway, France’s Sophie Adenot and Russia’s Andrei Fedyaev on an eight‑ to nine‑month ISS mission, backfilling four astronauts who returned in January in NASA’s first medical evacuation in 65 years of human spaceflight. NASA paused spacewalks while waiting for the replacements and is using the new crew to test a water‑to‑IV filter, an AI‑ and AR‑guided ultrasound system that reduces reliance on ground experts, and jugular‑vein ultrasound protocols for blood‑clot research—work intended to de‑risk medical care for longer Artemis and future Mars missions where rapid evacuation is impossible.

💭 A Word From Christophe Bosquillon

Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi's landslide victory in the February 8, 2026 snap parliamentary election provides her with a historic mandate to overhaul Japan's defense capabilities. By securing 316 of 465 seats, her Liberal Democratic Party achieved the first single-party two-thirds supermajority in Japan's postwar history.  

When in November 2025 Takaichi suggested that an invasion of Taiwan would represent a direct threat to Japan, China resorted to coercion and intimidation. Its consul-general in Osaka posted on X that Takaichi’s ‘filthy neck will be chopped off without a moment’s hesitation’. Beijing retaliated with bans on people, food, and export restrictions on Chinese rare-earth and other products to Japan.

Takaichi implements what has been expected from Japan for decades: to normalise its own defense and take charge as a stronger ally. This includes revising Japan’s Constitution to propose amendments to the “pacifist” Article 9 and formally recognize the Japan Self-Defense Forces. The supermajority allows Takaichi to bypass the opposition and override the upper house on critical legislation. 

Takaichi already accelerated the timeline to raise defense spending to 2% of GDP by March 2026 then beyond 3%. She will lift bans on arms exports, aiming to bolster Japan's domestic defense industry and international competitiveness. Takaichi intends to establish a national intelligence agency to enhance analysis and strategic protection of national interests. Her diplomacy with China will be based on a firm stance, not preemptive capitulation.  

Takaichi views advanced technology as a pillar of crisis-management industrial policy and her "Sanaenomics" agenda uses heavy fiscal spending to nurture strategic sectors, including defense-related space technologies and drone development. Her administration is prioritizing economic security and a "strategic investment" framework to ensure resilience in critical technologies and supply chains, reducing dependence on China. Her record defense budget is directed toward modern warfare preparedness with long-range counterstrike capabilities and emerging technology-based platforms to prepare for modern, high-intensity conflicts. 

PM Takaichi restored the South-Korea-Japan security relationship. She works on an even deeper U.S. alliance than during 1982-1989 (Reagan-Nakasone "Ron-Yasu" and "Japan as an unsinkable aircraft carrier"). The U.S. will have no stronger ally than Takaichi’s Japan in the Indo-Pacific region. 

Have a great Space Week ahead!

🎤 Our Next Guest: Morgan Goodwin

Morgan Goodwin has spent 15 years in the trenches of climate policy — from directing the Sierra Club's Angeles Chapter to serving as Mayor of Truckee, California, where he also built the region's premier makerspace from scratch. Three years ago, a conversation about locked-in warming trajectories forced him to confront a hard truth: even under best-case emission scenarios, decades of additional heating are baked into Earth's climate system. That realization led him to the Planetary Sunshade Foundation, where he now serves as Executive Director, leading conceptual engineering and climate modeling for space-based sunlight reflection — massive lightweight structures positioned at the Sun-Earth L1 Lagrange point, a million miles from Earth, designed to block approximately 1% of incoming solar radiation and provide controllable, reversible cooling for decades.

Key topics:

• Why the climate math demands a third variable beyond emissions cuts and carbon removal — and what Mount Pinatubo proved about sunlight reflection
• Engineering a planetary umbrella at L1: the physics, the materials science, and why orbital dynamics make selective deployment impossible
• The moral hazard debate: why environmentalists should engage with geoengineering rather than cede governance to crisis-driven governments
• Governance for infrastructure that affects 8 billion humans but exists in no nation's territory — and what Bretton Woods teaches about cooperation under pressure
• Why "we work at the speed of trust" may be the most important constraint on planetary-scale engineering

Watch Morgan's YouTube preview Tuesday on the Sirotin Intelligence YouTube channel. Full interview drops this week.