Sirotin Intelligence Briefing: January 18–24: Space Force Leadership Projects Service May Double to 35,000 Guardians, FY26 Bill Lifts Budget to $26B, Vast's Haven-1 Slips to Q1 2027

This week's Sirotin Intelligence analysis tracks Space Force leadership signaling the service may need to roughly double in size as satellites become wartime targets, with Vice Chief Gen. Shawn Bratton pointing to expanded missions in space domain awareness, counterspace operations, and cislunar activity. The FY26 defense appropriations bill lifts Space Force funding to approximately $26 billion and presses the Pentagon for detailed plans on the Golden Dome missile defense architecture, which could see $175 billion flow into it over three years. Vast has begun installing core systems on Haven-1, the first stand-alone commercial space station, though launch has slipped to Q1 2027. Blue Origin announced TeraWave, a 6 Tbps enterprise satellite network targeting data centers and governments, with first launches planned for late 2027. Meanwhile, an Atlantic Council report warns the U.S. remains "unacceptably vulnerable" to Russian space escalation scenarios, from debris-creating ASAT attacks to a nuclear detonation in LEO. Our next guest is David Goldsmith, Executive Director of the Project Moon Hut Foundation, on why lunar mining remains a fantasy and what a 40-year plan to build a home on the Moon actually requires.

🛡️ Defense Highlights

• Space Force forecasts it may double in size as satellites become wartime targets: Vice Chief of Space Operations Gen. Shawn Bratton told SpaceNews that growing adversary counterspace threats—jamming, dazzling, cyber, and kinetic weapons—are forcing the service to accelerate integration with the joint force, expand end strength, and begin planning "multi‑domain sustainment" beyond LEO. He signaled that the service's current ~16,000 Guardians could roughly double over the next decade as the Space Force absorbs new missions in space domain awareness, offensive and defensive counterspace, and cislunar operations.
• Space Force leadership says service may need to roughly double in size: Vice Chief of Space Operations Gen. Shawn Bratton told Defense One that as satellites become battlefield targets and the service takes on more space‑control, cyber, intel and cislunar missions, the current ~16,000‑Guardian force is likely too small and could need to grow to on the order of 30,000–35,000 personnel over the next decade. He linked that growth to building a deeper acquisition corps, bolstering combat‑credible space forces for joint operations, and preparing for potential future roles such as Space Force astronauts, which a Mitchell Institute report argues will eventually be “inevitable” for certain missions.
• FY26 bill lifts Space Force to about $26 billion and pushes “Golden Dome” transparency: The compromise defense appropriations act funds the U.S. Space Force at roughly $26 billion, nearly double its budget from five years ago, and shifts money toward GPS, SDA’s proliferated constellations and commercial services while trimming the proposed MILNET communications constellation. Lawmakers also press the Pentagon for detailed cost, schedule and architecture plans for the Golden Dome space‑centric missile‑defense shield, after having already unlocked about $23 billion for it last year and signaling that a total of roughly $175 billion could flow into the architecture over the next three years.
• Space Force leadership positions for FY27 budget jump and end‑strength growth: In industry remarks, Vice Chief of Space Operations Gen. Shawn Bratton said that if FY26 levels hold, the service will have “doubled the budget within a few years” and he is “super optimistic” about a further bump in FY27 tied to President Trump’s planned $1.5 trillion defense top line. Bratton, acquisition chief Lt. Gen. Philip Garrant and senior integrator Gen. Stephen Purdy all warned that a surge in programs—many transitioning from DARPA, SCO and DIU demos into full portfolios—will require “all hands on deck” and more acquisition professionals across all career fields to avoid mismanaging the incoming money and workload.
• Atlantic Council urges “deterrence by denial” to counter Russian escalation in space: A new report argues that current U.S. space policy, acquisition, and commercial‐integration efforts are inadequate against Russia’s growing space threats, including concepts to place a nuclear weapon in orbit in violation of international law. It concludes that in shaping Russian leaders’ calculus, deterrence by denial of benefit (resilience, dispersal, active defenses) should outweigh cost‑imposition, and pairs this with assurance campaigns toward China and India plus fifteen concrete policy and acquisition recommendations for architectures that can fight through debris‑creating ASAT attacks and, in the worst case, a LEO nuclear detonation, while still seeking crisis de‑escalation.​
• Analysts push break‑ups of legacy primes as Trump clamps down on payouts: Aviation Week reports that L3Harris and Honeywell are already splitting up and that Wall Street analysts are openly modeling similar break‑ups for Lockheed Martin, RTX, Boeing and General Dynamics, arguing that stand‑alone space and missile units tied to Golden Dome and munitions replenishment would get higher valuations and be more responsive. They note broad bipartisan frustration that post‑Cold‑War consolidation left too few agile suppliers and say President Trump’s Jan. 7 executive order limiting shareholder rewards and executive pay will likely divert tens of billions of dollars into M&A and vertical integration, accelerating restructuring across the defense‑industrial base.
• Shield Space raises £2M to field autonomous satellite‑defense demo: UK startup Shield Space has closed a £2 million seed round led by Mercia Ventures (via the Midlands Engine Investment Fund II), with Twin Path, ROI Ventures and P3A Ventures participating, to finance its first orbital test flight in early 2027, move into larger Lincoln facilities and hire at least five staff. Founded in 2025 by former UK Space Command personnel Graeme Ritchie and Dan Molland, the company is developing AI‑guided autonomy that lets satellites detect jamming or physical threats and maneuver in real time without waiting for ground controllers, aiming to cut response latency and operating costs while hardening both national‑security and commercial constellations.
• Atlantic Council/SpaceNews highlight U.S. vulnerability to Russian space escalation: A SpaceNews write‑up of the Atlantic Council’s new “Countering Russian Escalation in Space” report underscores that the United States remains “unacceptably vulnerable” to scenarios ranging from a debris‑creating ASAT campaign to a nuclear detonation in LEO that could blind satellites and disrupt daily life on Earth. Authors John Klein and Clementine Starling‑Daniels argue that existing U.S. policy and acquisition practices, plus current levels of commercial integration, will not by themselves deter or withstand these threats, and that deterrence strategies must prioritize denial of benefit and active defenses over cost‑imposition strikes, while also reassuring China and India to help de‑escalate any crisis.
• Chinese Shenzhou‑20 capsule returns empty after debris damage: After inspectors found micrometeoroid or debris‑caused cracks in one of Shenzhou‑20’s windows while it was docked to Tiangong, China launched a replacement Shenzhou‑22 crew vehicle and ultimately commanded Shenzhou‑20 to undock and perform an uncrewed reentry and landing at Dongfeng. The capsule touched down safely, but recovery teams had to cut away the parachute in high winds since no crew were aboard to release it, and Chinese officials are treating the sequence as both a successful emergency‑response drill and a reminder of rising debris risks even to “routine” crew vehicles.
• Sahel alliance taps Russia for first shared telecom satellite: Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, acting through the Alliance of Sahel States, are partnering with Russian entities including Roscosmos on a joint telecom satellite to extend mobile and internet coverage across sparsely connected regions, support secure government and security communications, and signal a pivot toward “digital sovereignty” and away from Western infrastructure providers. Analysts note that while the project could underpin mobile banking, e‑commerce and cross‑border coordination, it also deepens geopolitical dependence on Moscow, making transparent financing and governance critical if the asset is to deliver lasting economic and strategic benefits.​
• Space Force acquisition arm scrambles to rebuild contracting workforce: After civilian cuts hollowed out its contracting ranks, the Space Force’s acquisition organization is now racing to rehire and upskill personnel just as major Pentagon acquisition reforms and a prospective budget surge arrive, raising fears that too few contracting officers will be left to manage billions in new programs. Officials warn that without a rebuilt workforce—especially in software‑intensive, rapid‑procurement portfolios—the service risks delays, errors, or over‑reliance on a handful of primes at the very moment it is trying to diversify suppliers and lean into commercial partnerships.

Major Contract Awards This Week:

• Bechtel Plant Machinery Inc. – Naval nuclear propulsion components: An $812.1 million cost-plus-fixed-fee contract for naval nuclear propulsion components supporting the Navy's nuclear-powered fleet through September 2034.
• Raytheon Co. – Tomahawk missile recertification: A $380.8 million fixed-price incentive modification for Lot Five and Lot Six recertification and modernization of Tomahawk missiles, including depot operations and spares, through April 2029.
• Lockheed Martin – PAC-3 missile recertification: A $202.8 million modification for inspection, recertification, and repair of PAC-3 missiles for Taiwan under Foreign Military Sales through June 2028.
• Microsoft Corp. – Cloud One Program: A $170.4 million firm-fixed-price sole-source task order for Microsoft Azure cloud services supporting the Air Force's Cloud One Program through December 2028.
• Moffatt & Nichol – Burns & McDonnell Hawaii – Waterfront engineering: An $84 million IDIQ modification for architect-engineer services on various waterfront projects across NAVFAC Hawaii's area of responsibility, bringing total contract value to $264 million.
• Raytheon Co. – SM-2/6 engineering support: A $59 million cost-plus-fixed-fee modification for Standard Missiles 2 and 6 engineering and technical support, including FMS to Australia, Chile, Denmark, and South Korea through March 2028.
• Battelle Memorial Institute – Disease outbreak preparedness: A $52.9 million hybrid contract for Scientific and Technical Engagement Partnership 2.0, providing scientific services to strengthen partner nation capabilities in disease outbreak prevention and detection through January 2031.
• Mantel Technologies – Canine ISR system: A $49.9 million SBIR Phase III contract to advance the Scalable, Modular Canine Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance System through January 2031.
• Range Generation Next LLC – Reagan Test Site support: A $21.2 million modification for Reagan Test Site engineering and technical services, bringing total contract value to $546.7 million through October 2028.
• Corvid Technologies – Sub-orbital vehicles: A $21.2 million modification for design, manufacture, and delivery of short/medium range sub-orbital vehicles including ground test hardware and launch support, with 30% for Japan under FMS.
• Geneva Technologies – FalconSAT-11: A $17.7 million firm-fixed-price contract to mature the FalconSAT-11 bus with Modular Propulsion Unit through assembly, integration, test, and delivery to launch site by May 2028.
• University of Hawaii – Satellite resiliency research: A $12 million cost-no-fee contract for Pacific Architecture for Rapid Space Exploitation and Control, providing satellite resiliency research and modeling through the Air Force Research Laboratory's Maui High Performance Computing Center through May 2031.
• Integer Technologies – Autonomous seabed warfare: A $10.7 million option exercise for intelligent autonomous systems research, developing AI/ML-enabled decision support tools for seabed warfare missions through January 2029.

🌐 Policy, Geopolitical & Legal Developments

• “Sky mirror” constellation proposal inflames global light‑pollution debate: California startup Reflect Orbital proposes launching about 4,000 large orbiting mirrors to reflect sunlight onto selected regions after dark, marketed as a way to extend solar‑plant operations, support agriculture and light up cities. Astronomers and dark‑sky advocates argue this would intentionally brighten the night, severely degrading ground‑based astronomy, disturbing ecosystems and even posing eye‑safety and aviation hazards, and researchers like NASA Ames scientist Alejandro Borlaff urge international limits on satellite brightness and pointing before such systems become normalized.
• The Exploration Company in talks to acquire UK launcher Orbex: German‑French space‑logistics startup The Exploration Company (TEC) has signed a letter of intent to purchase struggling UK rocket builder Orbex, pending British government approval and settlement of the roughly €112 million ($131 million) the UK had earmarked for Orbex as part of ESA's small‑launcher support program. TEC's CEO frames the deal as a "win‑win" that would add a dedicated small‑lift vehicle (Orbex Prime, plus the larger Proxima under development) to TEC's planned cargo‑return capsule, while preserving UK sovereign launch ambitions and jobs at Orbex's Sutherland spaceport.
• Crew‑11 stresses mission success and transparency after early medical evacuation: In their first post‑landing press conference, Crew‑11 underscored that they completed almost all of their planned research and maintenance tasks before the January 15 medical evacuation, and emphasized that NASA handled the undisclosed condition as a non‑emergency but prudent decision to ensure the affected astronaut could get full diagnostic work on Earth. The crew said they support NASA’s choice to keep the astronaut’s identity and details private, framed the event as proof of the agency’s “crew‑first” culture rather than a failure, and noted that Chris Williams remains fully trained to run ISS operations solo with extensive ground support until Crew‑12 arrives.​
• China’s damaged Shenzhou‑20 capsule returns empty after debris strike: Following detection of tiny cracks in a viewport—likely from a small piece of space debris—China flew a replacement crew vehicle (Shenzhou‑22) to Tiangong and later commanded the repaired Shenzhou‑20 to make an uncrewed, stand‑alone reentry, which it survived, landing at Dongfeng in mid‑January. Recovery teams had to manually cut away the parachute in strong winds, since no astronaut was aboard to jettison it, and CNSA is treating the mission as a successful emergency‑operations drill that validated rapid response from anomaly detection through launch, docking and safe disposal in just 16 days.​
• Busy January 18–24 space‑policy slate mixes Artemis, ISS and budgets: The latest weekly agenda highlights NASA’s Artemis II science and technology briefing, several National Academies sessions on astrophysics, planetary defense and Earth‑science applications, and continuing analysis of the just‑passed FY2026 NASA/NOAA appropriations as they move to the White House. The House remains in session with a focus on climate and weather‑satellite oversight, while think‑tank events dig into topics like space‑traffic management, commercial space‑station transition and military space competition, underscoring how human‑spaceflight operations, science priorities and defense strategy are converging in the early‑2026 policy conversation.
• Earnings beat and ISS pharma deal send Booz Allen and Voyager Technologies higher: Booz Allen Hamilton’s latest results topped EPS expectations and came with a raised full‑year earnings outlook, which analysts described as the defense consultancy “getting its groove back,” driving its stock higher even as the broader market dipped. Meanwhile, Voyager Technologies (VOYG) surged on news of a new agreement to support microgravity pharmaceutical testing aboard the ISS, positioning the company as a key integrator for commercial R&D payloads in orbit and feeding investor enthusiasm for dual‑use space‑and‑defense platforms.
• Microsoft’s $170M Air Force win puts big‑tech and primes at the top of defense/space watchlists: A 24/7 Wall St. roundup of “top defense and aerospace stocks” following Microsoft’s $170 million Air Force contract highlights how hyperscalers are increasingly central to defense and space modernization, often via classified cloud, AI, and battle‑networking work that can be hard for investors to track. The piece notes that alongside Microsoft, traditional primes and advanced drone/space players like AeroVironment and Kratos have also benefited from recent missile‑defense, ISR and Golden Dome–related awards, though some high‑profile investors are already trimming positions on the view that headline‑driven spikes from the Venezuela and Iran crises may fade.
• Philippines positions itself as ASEAN hub for EU Earth‑observation data: A GovInsider‑linked PhilSA account describes how the Philippines is anchoring an EU partnership under the Global Gateway strategy through the Copernicus‑based CopPhil program, which includes Southeast Asia’s first Copernicus data hub (opened October 2024), pilot services for ground‑motion and land‑cover monitoring, and training and scholarships in remote sensing. Philippine and EU officials say the goal is to make the country a regional hub for Earth‑observation applications—supporting agriculture, disaster resilience and biodiversity management across ASEAN—by pairing EU satellite data with local capacity building and digital‑infrastructure investments.

🛰️ Technology & Commercial Developments

• Former astronaut joins Vast as Haven‑1 enters integration, launch slips to Q1 2027: Vast has begun installing pressurized fluid systems, thermal control, life support and propulsion tubing on Haven‑1, the world's first stand‑alone commercial space station, which will proceed through avionics and GNC integration, then crew‑habitation closeouts, MMOD shielding and solar arrays before environmental testing at NASA's Neil Armstrong Test Facility later this year. The company also announced it has hired another former NASA astronaut (joining lead astronaut Andrew Feustel), but now targets a Q1 2027 Falcon 9 launch rather than 2026, citing the integration timeline and its hardware‑rich, stepping‑stone strategy that validated key systems on Haven Demo in November 2025.
• Space Beyond books 2027 SpaceX rideshare for low‑cost memorial cubesat: California startup Space Beyond has signed a launch‑services agreement with Arrow Science & Technology for a cubesat slated to fly on SpaceX's Transporter‑22 mission in October 2027, offering families the option to send cremated remains or DNA into orbit at consumer‑accessible price points as the company works to scale space memorials to a mass market.
• Rocket Lab’s 80th Electron flight extends its lead in dedicated small launch: Rocket Lab has completed its 80th Electron mission and first launch of 2026, lofting two Open Cosmos satellites to a 1,050‑km circular LEO from Launch Complex 1 in New Zealand on the mission “The Cosmos Will See You Now.” The company frames the flight as proof of Electron’s position as the world’s most frequently launched dedicated small orbital rocket and notes that, despite a Neutron Stage‑1 tank rupture during testing, a replacement tank is already in work and a busy 2026 manifest remains intact.
• India’s spacetech startups seen pulling in $3–5 billion from VC/PE by 2030: An Economic Times–cited study projects that Indian spacetech companies could attract $3–5 billion in venture and private‑equity funding by 2030 as over 200 startups move from R&D to commercialization in launch, EO and downstream analytics. Backed by the 2023 space policy (which allows 100% FDI in satellites), a ₹10,000‑crore (~$1.2 billion) government fund managed by IN‑SPACe, and high‑profile investments like Alphabet’s stake in Pixxel, founders and investors see the next two years as critical for building the first unicorns and establishing a pipeline to IPOs.
• “Smart crystal” actuators promise lighter, more precise space mechanisms: Interesting Engineering covers research into piezoelectric “smart crystals” that deform predictably under electric fields, enabling compact actuators for fine pointing, adaptive optics, vibration damping and micro‑positioning on spacecraft without heavy hydraulic systems. By providing fast, precise motion with low power and no mechanical backlash, these materials could underpin more agile antennas, mirrors and control surfaces on satellites and deep‑space probes, supporting the broader shift toward software‑defined, reconfigurable space systems.
• Orbital chip testing and in‑space fabs move from concept to practice: RCR Wireless reports that South Korea has tapped Nara Space to run an in‑orbit verification project that will fly seven domestic space‑grade chips on a 6U microsatellite, monitoring how radiation, vibration and thermal cycling affect reliability so those devices can be qualified for future satellite designs and global export. The article places this in a broader 2025–26 trend that includes UK startup Space Forge’s microwave‑sized semiconductor “factory” satellite, which has already demonstrated plasma generation in orbit, and an October 2025 ISS experiment where University of Florida and partners deployed photonic AI prototypes to characterize how advanced compute hardware behaves in microgravity and the harsh LEO environment.​
• China pushes space‑tech and AI as dual engines for commercial demand: New Digitimes coverage highlights how Beijing is encouraging state‑owned and private firms to blend space platforms, satellite data and AI to serve logistics, agriculture, finance and smart‑city applications, framing “space‑enabled AI services” as a growth pillar alongside terrestrial cloud. Analysts cited in the briefing say Chinese chipmakers and hyperscalers see off‑Earth infrastructure—edge compute in orbit and tight integration with ground data centers—as a way to keep pace with U.S. and European rivals despite export controls, ensuring continued demand for domestic AI accelerators and RF components.
• India’s space economy targeted to be third‑largest by 2030: A report covered by The Hindu concludes that India aims to become the world’s third‑largest space‑tech economy by 2030, leveraging policy reforms, IN‑SPACe, and an expanding startup base to raise its share of the global space market toward 10% over the next decade. Supporting analysis from Indian industry bodies projects the national space sector growing from roughly $8–9 billion today to more than $40 billion by the early 2030s, with the fastest expansion in private launch, downstream applications and a nascent “space‑for‑space” segment (in‑orbit services, space situational awareness and exploration).​
• Blue Origin unveils TeraWave, a 6 Tbps enterprise‑grade satellite network: Blue Origin has announced TeraWave, a space‑based network aimed at enterprises, data centers and governments, promising up to 6 terabits per second via a hybrid constellation of 5,280 LEO satellites (RF links up to 144 Gbps each) and 128 MEO satellites using optical links. First launches are planned for late 2027; the company pitches TeraWave as a high‑throughput, symmetrical, low‑latency layer that complements terrestrial fiber and competes more with private backhaul and cloud connectivity than with consumer services like Starlink or Amazon’s Leo network.
• Self‑healing composite promises century‑scale life for aircraft and spacecraft: Researchers at North Carolina State have developed a fiber‑reinforced polymer (FRP) composite that can autonomously repair microcracks up to 1,000 times, using a 3D‑printed thermoplastic interlayer plus embedded carbon‑based heater sheets that melt and flow the healing agent when current is applied. Tests suggest the material could last roughly 125 years with quarterly healing or 500 years with annual cycles, and because it only needs electrical power, the team highlights potential use in difficult‑to‑service assets like spacecraft, satellites, turbine blades and large airframes where on‑orbit or in‑situ repair is otherwise impractical.
• Eastern Range proves it can fuel SLS and Vulcan on the same day: Range officials on Florida’s Space Coast say they are ready to support a Feb. 2 doubleheader: a USSF‑87national‑security launch on ULA’s Vulcan and a same‑day wet dress rehearsal tanking test of SLS for Artemis II, thanks to months of work boosting gaseous nitrogen (GN2) capacity and carefully deconflicting safety, surveillance and commodity flows. The range has protected up to four Vulcan launch attempts within the mission’s constrained window and published limited Artemis II date opportunities in February, March and April, illustrating how tight resource planning is becoming as heavy‑lift missions compete with a record commercial cadence.
• Chandra “deep cut” release showcases the X‑ray universe for the public: NASA’s Chandra X‑ray Observatory has compiled a curated “deep cut” set from its vast data archive, pairing high‑energy X‑ray views of objects like supernova remnants, black‑hole accretion disks and galaxy clusters with multiwavelength data to create striking composite images. The release is framed as both a science communication effort and a reminder of Chandra’s continuing value as policymakers debate future funding for flagship observatories.​
• Blue Origin to refly New Glenn booster on next mission: Blue Origin’s third New Glenn launch, targeted for late February (possibly slipping into March), will reuse the first stage flown on the NG‑2 mission that launched NASA’s ESCAPADE Mars probes on Nov. 13, marking the rocket’s first booster reflight. If the roughly ten‑week turnaround is achieved, it would demonstrate competitively fast refurbishment for a 322‑foot, partially reusable heavy‑lift vehicle designed for at least 25 flights per booster, a key milestone as the company seeks to prove New Glenn’s economics in the emerging heavy‑launch market.

💭 A Word From Christophe Bosquillon

This week, the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland switched from globalist to realist mode with space, defense, and disruptive tech taking center stage. While headlines covered mostly POTUS, his special address, the Greenland kerfuffle, the Canadian Premier delivering a lecture on the "new world order,” and the European kindergarten spanking, meaningful discussions did happen behind the "Spirit of Dialogue" scenes.  

The previously published WEF’s Global Risks Report 2026 places geo-economic confrontation and interstate conflict among the top global risks, with security and strategic competition as integral economic and policy agendas. Amid deep geopolitical, technological, and economic shifts, defense, space, and related industrial sectors become key drivers of 2026 economic strategy, infrastructure, and international security. Davos 2026 emphasises national and multinational security, economic growth strategies and innovation ecosystems, technological competition especially with AI, cybersecurity, and dual-use infrastructure, geopolitical risk management and alliance structures, and investment and supply-chain security. While Canada and Europe import more Chinese EVs, Bessent noted that Europe can't even make a battery.

Davos 2026 positionned Defence spending as a primary driver of economic growth. Leaders and industry executives noted that in coming years, the European Union will boost spending on defense towards 800 billion euros. In efforts to rebuild competitiveness, space was explicitly highlighted as a critical sector for investment, alongside AI and quantum technologies. Discussions centered on how to integrate and scale up European defense capabilities, securing and utilizing space assets for security. Increasing investments in defence equipment that is vital to Arctic security was acknowledged by both Treasury and NATO chiefs. Beyond cybersecurity, Davos stressed that frontier technologies like AI, quantum computing, and semiconductor supply chains are pivotal to national competitiveness and security. Disruptive technologies are being framed as essential infrastructure with dual-use economic and defense impact, a shift from purely commercial to strategic national interests.

Davos 2026 represents a substantive shift from earlier meetings virtue signaling, when global health, climate, and tech governance dominated political correctness. As space and security-adjacent industrial strategy become embedded in trade and investment discussions, Davos mirrors repositioning toward that sovereign techno-economic power at the heart of the U.S. NSS.

Have a great Space Week ahead!

🎤 Our Next Guest: David Goldsmith

David Goldsmith has worked across 300 industries in more than 50 countries. He once solved a problem for Maersk in three hours that internal teams had spent two years on. He taught executive strategy at NYU for twelve years, ran a rock quarry where he dropped 22,000 tons of stone, and holds patents ranging from AI applications to battery technology. When NASA invited him to tour their facilities, he walked out with something else entirely: a 40-year plan for putting a home on the Moon.

As Executive Director of the Project Moon Hut Foundation, Goldsmith has built what one Space Force official called "the most in-depth and detailed project of anybody anywhere." Hans Koenigsmann, SpaceX's fourth hire, reportedly reviewed the plans and told Goldsmith that SpaceX wasn't thinking at that scale.

What sets him apart may be counterintuitive: he doesn't particularly care about space. "If I were handed a ticket to the Moon, I wouldn't go," he says. That detachment seems to let him ask questions the space industry rarely does. Why, for instance, are we planning lunar mining when we've drilled exactly zero operational holes on the Moon? The deepest attempt reached about nine feet before the drill broke. And why do "self-sustaining" colony concepts ignore how every city on Earth actually functions?

Key topics:

• "Mearth" as a framework for rethinking where we live
• The economics of early lunar activity, and why mining isn't it
• What 700+ spacefarers tell us about the limits of the Overview Effect
• Antarctica as a model for supply chains you design, not escape
• A four-phase, 40-year plan: from 8 people to 1,644 by 2063

Watch David's YouTube preview Tuesday, January 27th on the Sirotin Intelligence YouTube channel. Full interview drops January 29th.