Sirotin Intelligence Briefing: July 14-19, 2025: China's "Breathtaking" Space Warfare Advances as Russia Targets Western Satellites, Space Force Seeks $6B for Classified Programs

This week's Sirotin Intelligence analysis reveals accelerating militarization as China advances orbital warfare capabilities with synchronized "dogfighting" maneuvers and the world's first in-orbit satellite refueling, while Russia formally declares civil and commercial satellites supporting Ukraine as legitimate targets for jamming or attack. Maryland inaugurates a $12.5 million AeroVironment defense research hub focusing on autonomous systems and AI as the Pentagon awards multiple billion-dollar contracts: Huntington Ingalls secures $913 million for carrier overhaul, L3Harris wins $347 million for Army SATCOM modernization, and Raytheon lands $264 million for counter-drone munitions. Strategic developments intensify with proposals to merge the National Reconnaissance Office with Space Systems Command while both Senate and House reject attempts to eliminate NOAA's space traffic coordination system. Meanwhile, Europe launches Project INVICTUS targeting hypersonic spaceplane deployment by 2031, China unveils lunar survival technology for extended Moon missions, and India's Omspace raises $3 million for modular launch vehicles. As military space budgets surge and commercial investments accelerate, the stark reality emerges: space has become an active theater of strategic competition where technological breakthroughs and policy decisions reshape the balance of power daily. In our upcoming interview, space warfare doctrine pioneer Paul Szymanski reveals mathematical proof that the U.S. lost its first space war in 2014—a conflict most people never knew happened.

🛡️ Defense Highlights

• Maryland Inaugurates $12.5M AV Defense Research Hub: Governor Wes Moore joined AeroVironment (AV) at the ribbon cutting for a new $12.5 million next-generation defense research and manufacturing center in Germantown. The 57,000 sq. ft. facility, powered by state and local economic grants, will employ 200 staff and amplify Maryland’s standing in advanced autonomous systems, AI, cyber, and phased array tech for military applications.
• DOD Awards and Military Contract Updates:
  • Navy Fuels Multi-Billion Carrier Overhaul: Huntington Ingalls Inc. (Newport News, VA) secured a $913 million contract for continued planning of a major refueling and overhaul of the nuclear-powered USS George H.W. Bush (CVN 77). This long-term project is integral to extending carrier service through 2047 and supports tens of thousands of direct and supply-chain jobs.
  • Raytheon Scores Major Ammunition Package: Raytheon (Tucson, AZ) landed a contract to deliver $264 million in counter-drone and precision-guided munition packages, with Foreign Military Sales (FMS) components included for key regional allies.
  • Army Selects L3Harris for SATCOM Modernization: L3Harris Technologies won a $347 million contract for advanced satcom modems and ground terminals—accelerating upgrades to U.S. Army strategic communications capabilities, focused on contested-environment resilience.
  • Air Force Taps Boeing for B-52 Engine Digital Control: The Boeing Co. received a $175 million award to field a full-authority digital engine control capability for B-52 bombers, aiming to boost aircraft fuel efficiency and integrate with new Rolls-Royce F130 engines.
  • U.S. Navy Expands Unmanned Vessel Fleet: Leidos Holdings, Inc. is moving forward with a $112 million award to design and deliver the next increment of fleet autonomous surface vessels, sharpening the Navy’s ability to field and scale unmanned platforms in contested maritime zones.
• China Accelerates Military Space Technology Modernization: China’s military-space ecosystem is developing at a “breathtaking” pace, racing to overtake the U.S. in orbital and deep space capabilities. Recent breakthroughs include the world’s first in-orbit satellite refueling—a key step toward sustainable, reusable space systems—and progressively sophisticated asteroid and Mars sample-return missions. Technological advances are matched by the rapid deployment of new dual-use satellites and growing resilience against outside interference. U.S. officials and analysts increasingly warn that China’s ability to field and operationalize cutting-edge military space systems is closing—or even surpassing—the competitive gap.
• Russia Labels Western Civil and Commercial Satellites ‘Legitimate Targets’: Russia has formally notified international regulators that civil and broadcast navigation satellites aiding Ukraine’s military will be considered legitimate for jamming or retaliatory targeting. This escalatory rhetoric follows documented GPS jamming, prior threats to Starlink, and a pattern of electromagnetic interference against Europe’s Eutelsat and SES satellite services. In March, eight EU countries formally protested Russian satellite interference to the UN, citing risks to civilian communications, aviation, and broadcast services. Moscow claims only “military-supporting” space assets will be affected—raising significant escalation concerns as commercial space becomes tightly linked to modern warfare.
• Airbus and Kratos to Deliver Combat-Ready Drone for German Air Force: Airbus Defence and Space has partnered with US-based Kratos Defense to integrate the XQ-58A Valkyrie—a stealthy, rail-launched combat drone—with a new Airbus-developed mission system. Combat capability for Germany is targeted by 2029. Designed for both autonomous and "loyal wingman" operations, the Valkyrie platform features a 3,000-mile range and stealth attributes. The mission system's open architecture is intended for broad NATO interoperability, directly supporting Germany's and Europe's evolving collaborative combat aircraft requirements and acceleration of sovereign, automated force multipliers.
• Hadrian Raises $260M to Scale Automated Aerospace/Defense Factories: Defense manufacturing startup Hadrian has closed a $260 million funding round led by Founders Fund, Lux Capital, and Morgan Stanley. The capital supports building a new, highly automated factory in Arizona, expansion in California, and launching a "factories as a service" model. Hadrian's facilities blend robotics, AI, and advanced manufacturing practices to mass-produce defense and aerospace components faster and at reduced costs, supporting US priorities for defense production resilience and onshore industrial capacity growth.
• DART Mission Reveals Unexpected Risks in Asteroid Deflection: New research on the aftermath of NASA's 2022 DART mission reveals that while the kinetic impact successfully altered the Dimorphos asteroid's orbit, it also ejected over 100 large boulders—many carrying more momentum than the spacecraft itself. These ejected rocks pose complex, unpredictable orbital hazards, suggesting that future planetary defense strategies must account for ricocheting debris and new threat vectors presented by high-energy deflection attempts.

🌐 Policy, Geopolitical & Legal Developments

• Space Force Recalibrates Launch Access Priorities Amid Demand Surge: With government launchpads increasingly crowded by commercial rockets, the U.S. Space Force has implemented new policies to ensure military and national security missions receive top scheduling priority at key spaceports. The change reflects mounting competition for access at sites like Cape Canaveral and Vandenberg, and underscores the Defense Department's intent to safeguard launch timelines for classified and defense-essential payloads as America's orbital portfolio expands.
• Trump Administration Defense Policy Nominee Proposes NRO-SSC Merger: A new proposal from Mark Berkowitz, the administration's defense space policy nominee, advocates merging the National Reconnaissance Office with Space Force's Space Systems Command. This union would streamline space acquisition, improving speed, coordination, and technology sharing between the intelligence community and military space, while leveraging the NRO's unique authorities. Alternatives include co-locating SSC with the NRO in Virginia or creating common training pathways. However, moving SSC out of Los Angeles faces resistance due to political, logistical, and workforce concerns. The policy challenge is balancing near-term disruptions against long-term integration benefits.
• Space Force 'Front Door' Launches Inaugural Global Industry Partnership Summit: The US Space Force's Front Door office, embedded within Space Systems Command, hosted its first major outreach event for international commercial space vendors during the National Space Symposium. Welcoming over 100 companies from 13 countries, the summit promoted global collaboration in US defense space projects and addressed challenges foreign firms face accessing US defense markets. The initiative signals an expanded push for allied interoperability, resilient architectures, and international tech integration as part of Space Force's broader partnership strategy.
• Trump Names New Leadership for Air Force and Space Force: President Trump has nominated Lt. Gen. Shawn Bratton as the next Vice Chief of Space Operations and Gen. Thomas Bussiere as the new Vice Chief of Staff of the Air Force. Bratton, currently Space Force's deputy chief for strategy, would assume the service's No. 2 uniformed position amid major new policy and procurement responsibilities, including the Golden Dome missile defense shield. These appointments are seen as driving modernization and organizational reforms across both services as their portfolios expand.
• US Air Force and Space Force Ramp Up Pacific Exercises and Space Integration: The U.S. Air Force and Space Force launched a first-in-a-generation Pacific Department-Level Exercise series, spanning all major combat commands and integrating 12,000 airmen and guardians with 350+ aircraft and advanced ISR/satellite capabilities. The drills, which include Mobility Guardian, Resolute Force Pacific, Emerald Warrior, and Bamboo Eagle, are designed to rapidly build joint force proficiency across the Indo-Pacific, stress-test operational autonomy, and practice distributed, resilient space operations against peer rivals.
• Senate and House Lawmakers Defend Space Traffic Coordination: Both Senate and House appropriators have rejected White House proposals to terminate funding for NOAA’s Traffic Coordination System for Space (TraCSS), the U.S. civil space traffic coordination program. Industry groups, including SpaceX and Boeing, argued that eliminating TraCSS would threaten satellite safety, burden national security missions, and risk driving operators abroad. Senate appropriators moved to fully retain funding for FY26, confirming bipartisan support for keeping this “space air traffic control” independent from military management.
• NASA Cuts Rejected; National Space Council Funded: House appropriators have also rejected proposals to cut NASA’s budget, opting instead to sustain funding at 2025 levels and continue supporting the National Space Council. Bipartisan opposition highlighted the vital role of NASA’s science and technology efforts in economic competitiveness, national security, and scientific leadership. Both chambers have signaled a commitment to preserving U.S. space leadership and continuity of major programs, including Mars Sample Return and critical planetary science missions.

🛰️ Technology & Commercial Developments

• China Unveils Lunar Survival Technology: Chinese researchers have developed a new system to enable astronauts to survive extended periods on the Moon, significantly reducing dependence on Earth resupply. Utilizing in-situ resource utilization, the technology converts lunar soil and solar energy into water, oxygen, and fuels. If flight-proven, these innovations could reshape lunar habitation timelines and strategic competition.
• China Advances Long March 10 Next-Gen Rocket: China’s space industry has completed major structural tests of its Long March 10 rocket, designed for upcoming crewed lunar missions. Recent trials featured successful separation of the rocket’s 5-meter payload fairing and evaluation of system reliability, clearing milestones necessary for the debut crewed lunar landing. The Long March 10 family will be crucial for China’s human Moon landings, with a maiden flight targeted in the “near future”.
• Poland’s SatRev Grows Global Reach with Omani Ground Station: Polish satellite manufacturer SatRev has launched a new ground station in Oman, expanding its international footprint in space communications infrastructure. The station will serve both national and regional clients, supporting Omani ambitions in space and signaling SatRev’s role as a key player in supporting emerging national space programs across the Middle East and beyond.
• Rocket Lab’s New Bullish Price Target as Space Tech Spending Rises: With space budgets and commercial demand surging, Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB) received an upgraded price target, positioning its stock for strong gains. Analysts cite accelerating Neutron rocket development and a ramp in government contracts—including classified and satellite manufacturing awards—underpinning projected revenue growth through 2029. Consensus points to double-digit upside even amid sector volatility.
• India’s Omspace Secures $3 Million for Modular Small Launch Vehicles: Ahmedabad-headquartered Omspace Rocket and Exploration has raised $3 million in pre-seed funding to develop Infinity One, a modular, cost-effective launch vehicle targeting 350 kg payloads to 800 km orbits. The early capital infusion, led by Indian and international investors, will fund prototype tests, manufacturing expansion, and team growth. Omspace plans to make space access more accessible for satellites from emerging markets and is scheduling its first commercial launch for January 2028 through its Dubai-based subsidiary.
• Europe Sets Sights on Hypersonic Spaceplane for 2031 Deployment: The European Space Agency and UK-based Frazer-Nash have launched Project INVICTUS—targeting full-scale test flights of a reusable, hydrogen-fueled hypersonic spaceplane by 2031. Leveraging pre-cooled, air-breathing propulsion technology first pioneered by Reaction Engines, INVICTUS aims for Mach 5 atmospheric speeds and horizontal runway launches. With €7 million in initial funding, the program positions Europe as a major player in hypersonic mobility, defense, and rapid-access-to-orbit capabilities.
• Felix Baumgartner Dies in Paragliding Crash: Austrian daredevil Felix Baumgartner, famed for his record-shattering 2012 Red Bull Stratos jump from the edge of space, died at age 56 in a paragliding accident near a crowded hotel pool in Porto Sant'Elpidio, Italy. Reports suggest he lost control of his motorized paraglider mid-air—possibly due to a medical issue—and crashed fatally into a wooden structure. Baumgartner's legacy endures as the only human to break the sound barrier outside an aircraft and as a pioneer in both skydiving and aerospace achievement.
• Space Stocks Outperform as Public and Private Investment Accelerates: The financial sector is experiencing unprecedented enthusiasm for space, with 'pure play' space equities and diversified aerospace-defense firms both seeing gains. Driven by exponential growth in satellite constellations, robust military procurement, and a tidal wave of private capital, analysts expect continued upward momentum as space becomes integral to communications, defense, and economic infrastructure.
• NASA Opens 2025 Space Apps Challenge Registration: NASA's global Space Apps Challenge is now open for registration, inviting international teams to tackle real-world challenges using open data. The world's largest space hackathon draws coders, scientists, and creatives from over 180 countries—fostering cross-border collaboration and applied innovation in Earth and space science. The event will take place October 4–5, 2025, embracing both virtual and in-person hubs and offering global recognition for inventive solutions.
• NASA Marshall Celebrates 65 Years of Innovation: The Marshall Space Flight Center, cornerstone of America's rocket program since 1960, marks its 65th anniversary. From building the Saturn V and launching the first Americans beyond Earth to delivering Artemis SLS engines and life support systems, Marshall's legacy is one of technical excellence, sustained public-private teamwork, and continuous leadership in the nation's evolving exploration agenda.
• PTC Launches Aerospace & Defense Startup Program: PTC announced a new Aerospace & Defense Startup Program offering early- and growth-stage companies free access to advanced cloud-native engineering and product management software—including Creo+, Onshape, Codebeamer+, and Arena. Selected startups also gain entry to PTC's network of mentors, investors, and industry partners. The program is designed to help startups manage compliance, accelerate innovation, and scale within the complex, regulated aerospace and defense sector—a move reflecting the sector's pivot to digital product development and rapid prototyping.

💭 A Word From Christophe Bosquillon

On the topic of space as a warfighting domain, two contrasting views reemerged this past week. Christopher Stone argues that "War in space is not a future problem: it’s happening now." Stone depicts China and Russia as active participants in a low-intensity war against the West, "a concerted campaign to erode US leadership and, if the time comes, destroy America’s “soft ribs.””

But Victoria Samson asserts that "Space is NOT a warfighting domain," characterizing the issue as a rhetorics problem: "When the U.S. calls space a 'warfighting domain' and labels Chinese maneuvers as 'dogfighting,' we're talking ourselves into a conflict that doesn't need to happen. Russia and China are smart enough not to use this language—giving them plausible deniability in diplomatic forums."

Samson acknowledges threats: Russia's nuclear ASAT risks an EMP that traps radiation in Van Allen belts for up to a year, turning thousands of satellites into "dead rocks." China's proximity operations with 5 satellites conducting "repeated rendezvous" maneuvers, docking in GEO, and refuelling, trigger concerns. Multiple GPS Russian jamming affects civilian airports. 7,000+ Starlink satellites are viewed by China as "U.S. military capability" and legitimate targets including for cyber weapons use. 

For Stone, this silent war, fought with China and Russia holding the advantage, demands urgent action to enable escalation dominance and overall improvements in the defense posture of current US space capabilities. Lest conflict in and from orbit enables post-war “grave aftermath.” 

Samson remains adamant that U.S. rhetorics of "Space is a warfighting domain" undermine American diplomatic efforts, and recommends smarter language such as "Domain of military activities," neutral terms Russia and China use while conducting the same activities, maintaining diplomatic high ground.

 There is a third category of views, also acknowledging space as a warfighting domain. Noting the current threat leaves open the possibility of war in the future, this third view nonetheless disagrees with the war already started.  Let's distinguish rhetorical nuances from harsh factual realities though: "Peace Through Strength" means a truly effective space deterrence and defense, so we never have to find out who was right or wrong. We haven’t reached that stage yet.

Have a great space week ahead!

🎤 Our Next Guest: Paul Szymanski

Thursday, July 24th – Paul Szymanski on the First Global Space War and America's Hidden Defeat

The father of space warfare doctrine Paul Szymanski joins us to reveal how the United States lost its first space war in 2014—a conflict most people never knew happened. With over 50 years developing space warfare theory and involvement in a dozen anti-satellite weapons programs, Szymanski has documented at least 11 space wars through orbital mechanics analysis and pattern recognition. His work is required reading at Space Force officer training schools, yet his warnings about fundamental flaws in U.S. space doctrine continue to go unheeded.

🔍 Topics Covered:

• Mathematical proof that Russia's 2014 GLONASS satellite failures were a deliberate U.S. attack from Pine Gap, Australia
• How Russia won that space war by attacking American banks and forcing Obama to the negotiating table
• Why China's 2017 attack on a U.S. missile warning satellite led directly to Space Force's creation
• The "farmers versus herders" civilizational framework that explains why China hasn't invaded anyone in 1,000 years
• How Fractional Orbital Bombardment Systems (FOBS) could sink all 12 U.S. aircraft carriers tonight using 1960s technology
• Evidence that Russia used cyber weapons to de-orbit 200+ Starlink satellites as a warning to Elon Musk
• Why Space Force's tactical thinking misses that space wars end in 24-48 hours
• The 100 ways to attack satellites without creating debris that Szymanski has developed
• How temporal pattern analysis reveals space conflicts hidden behind "solar flare" cover stories
• Why "satellites have no mothers" makes space the preferred domain for escalation without public outcry

Don't miss this explosive conversation with the man who's been documenting space warfare for five decades, revealing why hypervelocity weapons from orbit could render the U.S. Navy obsolete overnight—and why the conflicts above our heads are far more active than anyone admits.

📚 Essential Intel from Our Archives

Missed a beat? These groundbreaking conversations are must-reads:

"Space Is Not a Warfighting Domain"

Secure World Foundation's Victoria Samson warns that inflammatory rhetoric about space warfare could "speak ourselves into a conflict" while revealing the truth behind Chinese satellite "dogfighting," Russia's rumored nuclear ASAT weapon, and why the Golden Dome's space-based interceptors could cost $540 billion and still fail.

"The Grid Is Already a Living System—We Just Don't Recognize It"

Power systems veteran Mike Swearingen explains why treating the power grid as a living, autonomous system isn't science fiction—it's an engineering reality we refuse to acknowledge, and how space-domain tactics can secure the grid of tomorrow.

"The Hidden Power Struggle Reshaping China: Xi Jinping's Dramatic Fall From Grace"

An investigation into China's internal power dynamics reveals how Xi Jinping's grip on power is weakening amid economic turmoil, military purges, and rising opposition within the Communist Party.

"I Patented a Space Airlock That Uses 6,000 Times Less Air"

NASA veteran Marc Cohen reveals his revolutionary Suitport design and four decades of challenging engineering orthodoxy, advocating for space habitats that prioritize human experience over forcing astronauts to adapt to machines.

"I Created a Language That Lets AI Think in 128 Dimensions"

Former corporate sales executive Chris McGinty reveals how his McGinty Equation unifies quantum mechanics with relativity through fractal geometry, creating Hyperfluid AI and revolutionary space-folding technologies now being adopted by NATO defense strategists.

"I'm on a Crusade to Expand the Domain of Life"

Space pioneer Rick Tumlinson reveals how he created the NewSpace movement, his work with Dr. Gerard K. O'Neill, and his 40-year mission to expand humanity beyond Earth through commercial space ventures.

"Space Law Is The First Domain Where Nations Agreed On Rules Before Having Practice" 

Military JAG-turned-attorney Trevor Hehn explains how Cold War-era space treaties meet modern commercial ventures, highlighting the challenges of resource utilization, dual-use technologies, and regulatory navigation for companies expanding beyond Earth's atmosphere.

"The Unprotected Power Grid Will Be Our Civilization's Death Warrant If We Don't Act"

Doug Ellsworth, Co-Director of the Secure the Grid Coalition, warns about America's vulnerability to electromagnetic pulse attacks and advocates for urgent power grid protection to prevent catastrophic infrastructure collapse.

"When AI Designs Components, They Sometimes Defy Textbook Engineering"

Space Force Lt. Colonel Thomas Nix reveals how 3D printing and AI are creating revolutionary spacecraft designs, with parts that are stronger and lighter than what human engineers could develop using traditional methods.

"The Gaps in Our Lunar Knowledge Are Enormous"

Extraterrestrial Mining Company Chief Scientist Dr. Ruby Patterson describes the urgent need for more lunar geological data before making commercial decisions, while offering a balanced view on helium-3 mining and advocating for inclusive international cooperation in cislunar space.

"We're Building the Railroads of the Space Gold Rush"

Space Phoenix Systems CEO Andrew Parlock positions his company as "FedEx for space," creating an infrastructure that helps businesses launch and return payloads from orbit with minimal friction.

"Our Nuclear Shield Was Killed For Political, Not Technological Reasons"

Reagan's SDI Director Ambassador Henry Cooper argues that effective missile defense technology developed during the Reagan-Bush years was abandoned for political reasons when the Clinton administration "took the stars out of Star Wars."

"Every Country Has a Border with Space"

UK Space Agency CEO Dr. Paul Bate is developing Britain's space industry through initiatives like spaceports in Scotland's Shetland Islands to establish the UK as Europe's premier satellite launch destination.

"We're Treating Satellites Like They're Still In The 1990s" 

Niha Agarwalla, Director of Commercial Space, explains why traditional satellites are obsolete and how resilient constellations will transform space economics.

"When People See Space Guardians in Uniform, They Ask If They're Real" 

Colonel Bill Woolf, 25-year space defense veteran, reveals his mission to build public support for the newest military branch defending America's orbital assets.

"One Kilogram of Helium-3 Is Worth $50 Million" 

Jeffrey Max, Magna Petra CEO, explains how lunar resource extraction could revolutionize Earth's energy production and fuel humanity's expansion across the solar system.

"I'm Building a Rocket Engine That Could Reach Alpha Centauri" 

Michael Paluszek, Princeton Satellite Systems President, reveals how fusion propulsion could reduce travel times throughout our solar system and enable humanity's first interstellar missions.

"Space Has a Scottish Accent"

Chris Newlands, CEO of Space Aye, discusses how his company's satellite technology is revolutionizing wildlife conservation and helping to combat illegal fishing and poaching.

"I Learned From the Last Generation of Manhattan Project Veterans”

Patrick McClure, former Kilopower Project Lead at Los Alamos National Laboratory, explains how small nuclear reactors could power future missions to the Moon, Mars, and beyond.

"We're Being Attacked Every Day" 

Christopher Stone, Former Pentagon Space Advisor, warns about America's vulnerabilities in orbit and explains why China's "attack to deter" doctrine makes space conflict more likely than many realize.

"I Helped SpaceX Secure Their First Commercial Contracts" 

Serial entrepreneur Robert Feierbach discusses building billion-dollar space ventures across four continents and developing North America's newest spaceport.

"We Can Fly 8,000 Miles In 2 Hours" 

Jess Sponable, Ex-DARPA PM & President of NFA, explains how rocket-powered aircraft will revolutionize global travel through simplified hypersonic technology.​​ 

"This Could Be Our Biggest Economy"

Kevin O'Connell, Former Space Commerce Director, reveals how space is transforming from a government domain to a $1.8 trillion market.

​​"How Do You Win a War in Space?" 

Ram Riojas, Ex-Nuclear Commander and Space Defense Expert, explains why the next war will start in space and how nations are preparing their defenses.

"First Day on the Job, Hubble Was Broken" 

Mike Kaplan, James Webb Space Telescope Pioneer, reveals how early setbacks with Hubble shaped NASA's approach to complex space missions and discusses the commercial revolution transforming space exploration.

The Future of Human Space Habitation 

Jules Ross reveals how her journey from artist to space visionary is reshaping human adaptation to space through Earth's first artificial gravity station.

Space Law's New Frontier 

Attorney Michael J. Listner unpacks the complex legal challenges facing modern space activities. From resource rights to orbital debris management

Making Oceans Transparent From Space

Navy Legend Guy Thomas, inventor of S-AIS, shares how his invention transformed global maritime surveillance and security.