Sirotin Intelligence Briefing: May 12-17, 2025: Golden Dome Details Emerge, Chinese "Kill Web" Threat, and Quantum Breakthroughs in Orbit

This week's space intelligence highlights: China's expanding military capabilities in orbit dominate security discussions with Gen. Saltzman warning of a comprehensive "kill web" of targeting satellites, while experts call for establishing a US-China space hotline for emergency communications. Budget pressures continue as the Space Force evaluates cost-effectiveness of satellite refueling versus disposable platforms, and scientists celebrate ongoing successes in asteroid exploration with NASA's Lucy mission. On the commercial front, SpaceX marks a major milestone as Starlink revenue now exceeds its launch business for the first time. China has launched the first satellites of its ambitious 2,800-satellite "Three-Body Computing Constellation" for space-based AI computing, potentially establishing dominance in orbital data processing. Meanwhile, international space governance faces growing tensions at the UN COPUOS Legal Subcommittee in Vienna, where debates continue over traffic management and resource utilization, highlighting the gap between diplomatic idealism and strategic realities in the evolving space domain. Join us on May 28th as Rick Tumlinson, founder of multiple space organizations and pioneer of the NewSpace movement, discusses navigating the frontier where post-Apollo visions meet modern commercial ventures.

🛡️ Defense Highlights

• Space Force Chief Warns of China's "Kill Web" Threat: Space Force Chief of Operations Gen. Chance Saltzman warned that China has developed what he calls a "kill web" - hundreds of satellites providing real-time targeting information on US forces. Speaking at the Politico Security Summit, Saltzman emphasized that this sensor network poses a significant threat to American military operations, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region, while noting that Russia continues to demonstrate "reckless aggressive behaviors" in contesting the space domain.
• US and China Need Space Hotline for Orbital Emergencies: A new report from the Council on Foreign Relations calls for the creation of a space hotline between the US and China to reduce risks of miscalculation in orbit. The "Securing Space" task force report emphasizes the need for establishing emergency communications similar to existing hotlines with Russia, potentially including cooperation on astronaut rescue operations as commercial and government space activities increase and militarization of Earth's orbit accelerates.
• Space Force Weighs Cost and Value of Satellite Refueling Technology: The US Space Force is evaluating whether to invest in on-orbit refueling capabilities against the alternative strategy of deploying inexpensive, expendable satellites. Lt. Gen. Shawn Bratton says the service is analyzing tradeoffs in both operational advantages and costs, with upcoming demonstrations by Northrop Grumman and Astroscale planned for 2026, though budget constraints may ultimately determine which approach prevails.
• SES to Demonstrate Satellite Orchestration for Military Communications: Satellite operator SES Space & Defense will demonstrate its Secure Integrated Multi-Orbit Networking (SIMON) technology under a new Pentagon contract. The system intelligently routes data through multiple satellite networks across different orbits, moving beyond traditional PACE methodology to provide more resilient communications for military operations in contested environments.
• China Launches First of 2,800 Satellites for AI Space Computing Constellation: China deployed 12 satellites forming the "Three-Body Computing Constellation," capable of 5 peta operations per second with 30 terabytes of onboard storage. Led by startup ADA Space and Zhejiang Lab, this marks the beginning of a planned 2,800-satellite network for on-orbit AI computing, potentially establishing China as a leader in space-based cloud computing with significant strategic implications.
• Norway Becomes 55th Artemis Accords Partner: Norway joined the Artemis Accords during a ceremony in Oslo, becoming the 55th nation to sign the international agreement promoting peaceful space exploration. The US State Department highlighted the longstanding US-Norway space relationship dating back to 1962, with the Artemis Accords affirming that cooperative activities should be exclusively for peaceful purposes and in accordance with international law.

🌐 Policy, Geopolitical & Legal Developments

• Geopolitics Reshaping Space Economy, Creating Opportunities for Neutral Countries: The space economy is being reshaped by geopolitical tensions, with protectionist policies and national security concerns forcing space firms to adapt their strategies. New Zealand's relatively neutral position offers advantages as companies seek to diversify operations across multiple countries to mitigate risks from trade wars and export controls, with the country's space sector generating $1.8 billion in revenue and employing 20,000 workers across space and advanced aviation.
• Mission to MARS Act Aims to Modernize Johnson Space Center: US Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) introduced the "Mission to Modernize Astronautic Resources for Space Act," which proposes $1 billion over the next decade to upgrade NASA's Johnson Space Center. The legislation would enhance astronaut flight training facilities, modernize mission control for beyond-LEO operations, improve research laboratories, and address critical infrastructure maintenance to support long-duration missions to the Moon, Mars, and beyond.
• US Mint Launches Space Shuttle Dollar Coin in American Innovation Series: The United States Mint has begun sales of a new $1 coin honoring NASA's space shuttle as part of its American Innovation series representing Florida. The golden coin depicts a space shuttle lifting off from Kennedy Space Center's Launch Complex 39, celebrating the vehicle that flew 135 missions between 1981 and 2011, enabling unprecedented achievements in space exploration.

🛰️ Technology & Commercial Developments

• Karman Space & Defense Reports Record Q1 Financial Results: Karman Space & Defense announced record quarterly revenue of $100.1 million, up 20.6% year over year, with growth across all three of its market segments: Hypersonics and Strategic Missile Defense, Space and Launch, and Tactical Missile and Integrated Defense Systems. The company, which recently completed its IPO in February 2025, also achieved record quarterly non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA of $30.3 million and reached a record funded backlog of $636.4 million.
• Virgin Galactic to Increase Price for Space Tourism Flights: Virgin Galactic announced plans to raise prices for its space tourism flights when it resumes sales in the first quarter of 2026. The company, which had been selling tickets at about $600,000 per seat for its forthcoming Delta spacecraft, has not yet disclosed the new pricing structure as it shifts focus toward its next-generation vehicles expected to enter service in 2026.
• Satellite Industry Revenue Grows 3% Despite Rapid Constellation Expansion: Global satellite industry revenues reached $293 billion in 2024, a modest 3% increase that roughly kept pace with inflation, according to the Satellite Industry Association's annual report. While satellite manufacturing (17%), launch services (30%), and ground equipment (3%) sectors showed growth, satellite services fell by 2% due to declining satellite television revenues, even as the number of operational satellites has tripled since 2020 to over 11,500.
• Kepler Demonstrates Optical Communications for Satellite Relay Network: Canada's Kepler Communications successfully conducted space-to-ground optical data links between a prototype satellite and a French partner's ground station. The demonstration achieved data transfer rates meeting US Space Development Agency standards and represents a significant step toward Kepler's planned high-capacity relay network, which aims to overcome the bandwidth limitations of traditional radio frequency systems.
• Altimeter Problems Led to Intuitive Machines Lunar Lander Tipping: Intuitive Machines revealed that signal noise and distortion in its laser altimeters, combined with challenging lighting conditions in the Moon's south polar region, caused its IM-2 Nova-C lander to fall on its side in March. The company is implementing improvements for its next mission, including dissimilar redundant altimeters and lighting-independent sensors, while pursuing diversification beyond lunar landers with projects like orbital transfer vehicles and a lifting body reentry vehicle.
• Australia's First Orbital Rocket Launch Delayed Indefinitely: Queensland-based Gilmour Space postponed the debut launch of its Eris rocket indefinitely after discovering an unexpected issue with the vehicle's payload fairing during final checks. The company will send a replacement fairing from its Gold Coast factory after completing a full investigation, delaying what would have been the first-ever orbital launch of an Australian-built rocket from the Bowen Orbital Spaceport.
• China Develops World's First Space-Based Cold Atom Gyroscope: Chinese scientists have successfully demonstrated the first cold atom gyroscope operating in space, achieving unprecedented precision in rotation and acceleration measurements. Installed on the China Space Station in 2022, the instrument uses rubidium atoms cooled to near absolute zero to detect minute changes in motion, potentially advancing quantum navigation systems and enabling more precise tests of Einstein's general relativity theory.
• Researchers Discover "Bullet-Like" Winds from Supermassive Black Hole: An international team led by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency has found that ultra-fast wind surrounding a supermassive black hole are not smooth and continuous as previously assumed, but resemble rapid-fire streams of gas "bullets." The discovery, made using the X-ray Imaging and Spectroscopy Mission (XRISM), reveals that these winds carry far greater energy than anticipated, providing new insights into how galaxies and their central black holes evolve together.
• Laser Ultrasound Reveals Space Rock Elasticity for First Time: Scientists at the University of Nottingham have measured the stiffness of meteorite material using laser ultrasound for the first time, analyzing the Gibeon meteorite through a non-destructive technique called spatially resolved acoustic spectroscopy. This groundbreaking approach reveals properties of materials formed under exotic conditions that cannot be replicated on Earth, potentially advancing our understanding of planetary formation and developing materials for future extraterrestrial manufacturing.
• NASA's PUNCH Spacecraft Captures Cosmic Rainbow in Zodiacal Light: NASA's recently launched PUNCH mission has delivered its first images, including a vivid, rainbow-colored view of zodiacal light, representing different wavelengths of sunlight scattered by dust particles in space. The four small satellites work together to study the sun's corona and solar wind, with instruments capturing detailed views of the very faint, outermost portion of the sun's atmosphere.
• JWST Reveals Cloud Formation on Saturn's Moon Titan: The James Webb Space Telescope has captured the first evidence of cloud formation in Titan's northern hemisphere, observing cloud convection during the moon's summer season. The observations also identified a key missing piece of Titan's chemistry—methyl radical with an unbonded electron—providing new insights into the moon's complex weather patterns and active chemical processes.
• International Space Station May Be Too Clean for Astronaut Health: Researchers at UC San Diego have found that the International Space Station lacks microbial diversity compared to environments on Earth, which may contribute to astronauts' health issues like immune dysfunction and skin rashes. The study analyzed 803 surface samples from the ISS, revealing that nearly all microbes come from humans and building materials rather than natural environmental sources, suggesting future space habitats might benefit from intentionally fostering more diverse microbial communities.

💭 A Word From Christophe Bosquillon

In Vienna, the space diplomacy marathon “64th Session of the Legal Subcommittee” of the Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (UN COPUOS 2025 LSC) concluded on Friday 16 May. The LSC, acting as legal incubator, included themes like sovereignty, technology gaps, Space Traffic management (STM), and oversight, reflecting growing efforts toward legal precision and international cooperation. States reaffirmed the priority of holding UNISPACE IV in 2027.  

UNOOSA convened three side events featuring Amazon Project Kuiper, ARABSAT, Astroscale, ClearSpace, Digantara, D-Orbit, NorthStar Earth & Space, and Viasat, showcasing solutions for Space Situational Awareness, STM, and Active Debris Removal (later iin the debates, Russia would insist that the state responsible for a satellite is the only one to judge whether it became dysfuntional).

 The highest “semantic tension” occurred with Russia, France, Pakistan, China, Greece, and Mexico arguing to eventually reach consensus on an STM Study Group to be created. As for Egypt, it was invited to facilitate discussions for a formal agenda item to explore legal and institutional mechanisms for equitable benefit sharing, with backing from a broad coalition of Global South countries. 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, reality bites. On 18 June 2025, National Security Space Association will host a Space Threats and Acquisition Forum, a classified event between the U.S. Government and private sector participants. 

Precisely when China just initiated another timely disruption in orbit, by deploying the "Three-Body Computing Constellation" as part of China's broader "Star-Compute Program," which envisions a network of 2,800 satellites forming a massive orbital computing infrastructure. A pivotal step towards harnessing space-based AI supercomputing, with real-time, orbital data processing that impact fields ranging from climate science and disaster management to strategic defense operations.  

Disruptive tech proliferation has morphed space into the ultimate unregulated dual use domain for strategic dominance over Earth and the Solar System. In the words of Trevor Hehn, "Space Law Is The First Domain Where Nations Agreed On Rules Before Having Practice."   

Is this why, during the LSC, the Chinese delegation reminded the distinguished delegates that security considerations should remain confined within the Geneva discussions on arms control in space? 

 Have a great space week ahead!

🎤 Our Next Guest: Rick Tumlinson

Thursday, May 28th – Rick Tumlinson on Navigating the Frontier of Commercial Space 

Rick Tumlinson, founder of multiple space organizations including the Space Frontier Foundation and recognized pioneer of the NewSpace movement, joins us to discuss the evolving landscape where post-Apollo space visions meet modern commercial ventures pushing beyond Earth's atmosphere. 🔍 Topics Covered:

• How the space frontier movement emerged from the Apollo program's inspiration of a generation
• Why Gerard K. O'Neill's "The High Frontier" provided a crucial framework for people seeking to expand humanity beyond Earth
• The complex distinctions between government space programs and commercial space development
• How companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin are making the decades-old NewSpace vision a reality
• Strategies for engaging with established aerospace institutions when pioneering new approaches
• The challenges of developing permanent off-Earth communities and the resources needed
• Why reusable "rocket ships" represent the next frontier in space access and expansion
• How startups can find paths forward in an industry traditionally dominated by government programs

The critical balance between enabling innovation and expanding the domain of life beyond Earth Don't miss this insightful conversation with a uniquely qualified expert who combines decades of space advocacy experience with entrepreneurial vision. Tumlinson brings his pioneering background in the NewSpace movement to illuminate the critical challenges and opportunities facing humanity's expansion into space.

📚 Essential Intel from Our Archives

Missed a beat? These groundbreaking conversations are must-reads:

"Space Law Is The First Domain Where Nations Agreed On Rules Before Having Practice" 

Military JAG-turned-attorney Trevor Hehn explains how Cold War-era space treaties meet modern commercial ventures, highlighting the challenges of resource utilization, dual-use technologies, and regulatory navigation for companies expanding beyond Earth's atmosphere.

"The Unprotected Power Grid Will Be Our Civilization's Death Warrant If We Don't Act"

Doug Ellsworth, Co-Director of the Secure the Grid Coalition, warns about America's vulnerability to electromagnetic pulse attacks and advocates for urgent power grid protection to prevent catastrophic infrastructure collapse.

"When AI Designs Components, They Sometimes Defy Textbook Engineering"

Space Force Lt. Colonel Thomas Nix reveals how 3D printing and AI are creating revolutionary spacecraft designs, with parts that are stronger and lighter than what human engineers could develop using traditional methods.

"The Gaps in Our Lunar Knowledge Are Enormous"

Extraterrestrial Mining Company Chief Scientist Dr. Ruby Patterson describes the urgent need for more lunar geological data before making commercial decisions, while offering a balanced view on helium-3 mining and advocating for inclusive international cooperation in cislunar space.

"We're Building the Railroads of the Space Gold Rush"

Space Phoenix Systems CEO Andrew Parlock positions his company as "FedEx for space," creating an infrastructure that helps businesses launch and return payloads from orbit with minimal friction.

"Our Nuclear Shield Was Killed For Political, Not Technological Reasons"

Reagan's SDI Director Ambassador Henry Cooper argues that effective missile defense technology developed during the Reagan-Bush years was abandoned for political reasons when the Clinton administration "took the stars out of Star Wars."

"Every Country Has a Border with Space"

UK Space Agency CEO Dr. Paul Bate is developing Britain's space industry through initiatives like spaceports in Scotland's Shetland Islands to establish the UK as Europe's premier satellite launch destination.

"We're Treating Satellites Like They're Still In The 1990s" 

Niha Agarwalla, Director of Commercial Space, explains why traditional satellites are obsolete and how resilient constellations will transform space economics.

"When People See Space Guardians in Uniform, They Ask If They're Real" 

Colonel Bill Woolf, 25-year space defense veteran, reveals his mission to build public support for the newest military branch defending America's orbital assets.

"One Kilogram of Helium-3 Is Worth $50 Million" 

Jeffrey Max, Magna Petra CEO, explains how lunar resource extraction could revolutionize Earth's energy production and fuel humanity's expansion across the solar system.

"I'm Building a Rocket Engine That Could Reach Alpha Centauri" 

Michael Paluszek, Princeton Satellite Systems President, reveals how fusion propulsion could reduce travel times throughout our solar system and enable humanity's first interstellar missions.

"Space Has a Scottish Accent"

Chris Newlands, CEO of Space Aye, discusses how his company's satellite technology is revolutionizing wildlife conservation and helping to combat illegal fishing and poaching.

"I Learned From the Last Generation of Manhattan Project Veterans”

Patrick McClure, former Kilopower Project Lead at Los Alamos National Laboratory, explains how small nuclear reactors could power future missions to the Moon, Mars, and beyond.

"We're Being Attacked Every Day" 

Christopher Stone, Former Pentagon Space Advisor, warns about America's vulnerabilities in orbit and explains why China's "attack to deter" doctrine makes space conflict more likely than many realize.

"I Helped SpaceX Secure Their First Commercial Contracts" 

Serial entrepreneur Robert Feierbach discusses building billion-dollar space ventures across four continents and developing North America's newest spaceport.

"We Can Fly 8,000 Miles In 2 Hours" 

Jess Sponable, Ex-DARPA PM & President of NFA, explains how rocket-powered aircraft will revolutionize global travel through simplified hypersonic technology.​​ 

"This Could Be Our Biggest Economy"

Kevin O'Connell, Former Space Commerce Director, reveals how space is transforming from a government domain to a $1.8 trillion market.

​​"How Do You Win a War in Space?" 

Ram Riojas, Ex-Nuclear Commander and Space Defense Expert, explains why the next war will start in space and how nations are preparing their defenses.

"First Day on the Job, Hubble Was Broken" 

Mike Kaplan, James Webb Space Telescope Pioneer, reveals how early setbacks with Hubble shaped NASA's approach to complex space missions. 

The Future of Human Space Habitation 

Jules Ross reveals how her journey from artist to space visionary is reshaping human adaptation to space through Earth's first artificial gravity station.

Space Law's New Frontier 

Attorney Michael J. Listner unpacks the complex legal challenges facing modern space activities. From resource rights to orbital debris management

Making Oceans Transparent From Space

Navy Legend Guy Thomas, inventor of S-AIS, shares how his invention transformed global maritime surveillance and security.