Sirotin Intelligence Briefing: November 24-28: Russia Damages Its Only Crew Launch Pad, ESA Approves First Defense Program, Golden Dome Contracts Stay Classified

This week's Sirotin Intelligence analysis tracks a rare Russian infrastructure failure and Europe's historic pivot toward space defense. A Soyuz MS-28 launch badly damaged Russia's only crew-rated pad at Baikonur, temporarily leaving Roscosmos without human spaceflight capability for the first time since 1961. ESA approved its first explicitly military program within a record €22.1B three-year budget, funding the European Responsive Sentinel constellation for sovereign ISR and early warning. Space Force confirmed multiple prototype contracts for Golden Dome orbital interceptors but classified all contractor names under enhanced security measures, with experts warning that extreme secrecy is fueling Congressional and allied anxiety. China launched an uncrewed Shenzhou-22 as emergency backup after cracks appeared in a Shenzhou-20 porthole. NASA and Boeing restructured the Starliner contract, cutting guaranteed missions and converting Starliner-1 to cargo-only. Technical setbacks included Starship V3's first booster suffering structural failure during cryogenic testing, while Redwire won $44M to build an air-breathing satellite for very low Earth orbit. ESA secured NASA's reconfirmation for ExoMars despite proposed budget cuts, and announced plans for an Arctic Space Centre in Tromsø. Our next guest Joel Mozer, the first Chief Scientist of the United States Space Force, reveals why geomagnetic storms could provide cover for military operations, how precise predictions of future operating environments guarantee surprise, and the growing tension between supporting ground warfighters and protecting commerce in cislunar space.

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🛡️ Defense Highlights

• China launches uncrewed replacement for damaged Shenzhou‑20 return vehicle: After cracks were found in a Shenzhou‑20 porthole, China launched the uncrewed Shenzhou‑22 spacecraft to Tiangong to serve as a fresh lifeboat for the current crew, marking the country’s first true “emergency” crewed‑program launch. Shenzhou‑22 docked within hours, delivered repair kits and cargo, and gives the astronauts a safe ride home while engineers decide whether to attempt an uncrewed reentry of the damaged capsule or deorbit it over the Pacific—an important resiliency test for China’s human‑spaceflight operations.​​
• NASA, Boeing modify Starliner contract: fewer flights, Starliner‑1 now cargo‑only: NASA and Boeing have restructured the Commercial Crew contract, cutting the guaranteed number of post‑certification Starliner missions from six crewed flights to four total, with two as options, and converting Starliner‑1 from a four‑person astronaut mission to a cargo‑only flight to the ISS. The change reflects lingering propulsion and systems issues, but also keeps Starliner in the ISS logistics mix, with up to three future crewed flights still possible before station retirement if testing and operations proceed smoothly.​
• Space Force won’t say who got money to start developing orbital interceptors: Space Force confirmed it has awarded multiple small “other transaction” prototype contracts—each under the $9M disclosure threshold—for Golden Dome orbital interceptors, but says contractor names are withheld under “enhanced security measures.” Reuters reporting points to Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, True Anomaly, and Anduril among likely winners, with these tiny awards (~$120K each) serving as tickets into later, potentially multi‑billion‑dollar phases. Experts including Todd Harrison and Tom Karako warn that the combination of extreme secrecy and massive projected cost (hundreds of billions over 20 years) is fueling anxiety among Congress, allies, and industry about what Golden Dome really is and how it will be governed.​
• Saab invests in space technology company Pythom: Saab has made a strategic $10M investment in Pythom, a Swedish‑rooted space startup developing small, rapidly deployable rockets aimed at flexible, resilient launch. The deal is framed as part of Saab’s plan to close capability gaps in the space domain for Sweden and allies, giving the defense prime a foothold in responsive launch while helping Pythom drive toward its first orbital flight and dispersed launch infrastructure concepts that could support future military needs.​
• Golden Dome: Space Force Awards First Space‑Based Boost‑Phase Interceptor Prototype Contracts: The U.S. Space Force has quietly issued the first prototype awards for space‑based interceptors designed to hit enemy missiles in their boost phase just minutes after launch—Golden Dome’s most controversial layer. Awarded via competitive Other Transaction Agreements, the initial “prize” contracts are small (about $120,000 each) but come with options for year‑long ground demonstrations largely financed by industry, feeding into multi‑hundred‑million‑dollar follow‑on phases later in the decade. The list of winners is classified, and officials hint some SBI work will be hidden inside expanded MDA and Space Force contracts to accelerate development while keeping details from adversaries.​​
• Startup Spaceflux Secures Key Role in UK Civil/Defense Space Tracking Effort: UK startup Spaceflux has won three multimillion‑pound contracts in as many months, cementing its role as a principal provider of space surveillance data to Britain’s National Space Operations Centre (NSpOC), jointly run by the MoD and UK Space Agency. Using a global network of 15 electro‑optical telescopes with short‑wave infrared imaging, plus partner radar, RF, laser ranging, and neuromorphic sensors, Spaceflux will provide persistent LEO–GEO tracking and on‑demand tasking for collision risks and anomalous maneuvers, feeding fused data into NSpOC’s BOREALIS C2 system and effectively becoming the backbone of the UK’s sovereign SDA capability.​
• President Trump Salutes VSFB Guardians on Thanksgiving for Their Vital National Security Mission (Vandenberg SFB): On Thanksgiving, President Trump held a virtual call with service members from all branches, singling out Guardians at Vandenberg’s 18th Space Defense Squadron for their role in tracking launches “sometimes twice a day” and maintaining 24/7 space domain awareness. He praised their work onboarding new systems and managing a higher ops tempo, underscoring that SDA and launch support at Vandenberg are central to protecting U.S. and allied space assets in an increasingly contested domain.​​

Major Contract Awards This Week:

• RTX Corp., Pratt & Whitney Military Engines, East Hartford, CT: Awarded a not‑to‑exceed $1,606,190,091 undefinitized contract to sustain F135 engines that power all F‑35 variants, including global depot‑ and unit‑level maintenance, spares, software, configuration management, and training. Work spans multiple U.S. sites plus Norway, the Netherlands, Japan, Australia, Italy, the UK, and other F‑35 partner/FMS locations, locking in propulsion readiness across the worldwide F‑35 fleet through November 2026.
• Lockheed Martin Aeronautics, Fort Worth, TX: Received a $178,360,242 modification to an advanced acquisition contract to buy economic‑order‑quantity material, parts, and components for 48 F‑35s across Lots 20–22 (4 + 22 + 22 aircraft) for cooperative partners and FMS customers. This EOQ buy supports long‑lead items and supply‑chain stability for upcoming F‑35 production, strengthening allied fighter capacity into the 2030 time frame.
• Boeing Defense, Space & Security, Seattle, WA: Awarded a $2,469,937,348 contract modification for Air Force “Lot 12 Production Aircraft, G081, subscriptions and licenses” under the KC‑46A/airlift tanker program. Funding covers additional aircraft and associated software/licenses through June 2029, expanding aerial refueling and strategic airlift capacity at the core of U.S. and allied global power projection.
• The Boeing Co., Mesa, AZ: Awarded a $4,685,369,804 firm‑fixed‑price contract for new‑build Apache AH‑64E attack helicopters, Longbow crew trainers, and associated components, spares, and accessories. Funded primarily by FMS customers Poland, Egypt, and Kuwait, this package deepens allied attack aviation and combined‑arms capability, with deliveries running through May 2032.
• Cummins Power Generation Inc., Minneapolis, MN: Received a $500,000,000 firm‑fixed‑price contract to produce and lightly modify 500‑kW skid‑mounted mobile generator sets and power plants in support of FMS to Poland. These high‑capacity tactical power units underpin dispersed, hardened command posts, air‑defense batteries, and expeditionary logistics nodes.
• Northrop Grumman Systems Corp., Linthicum Heights, MD: Awarded a ceiling $100,000,000 IDIQ for Stand‑In Attack Weapon (SiAW) subsystem support, covering active seeker components, test and evaluation, and S&T development. The seeker work is central to enabling future USAF stand‑in weapons to penetrate contested A2/AD environments and prosecute high‑value targets.
• M1 Support Services LP, Denton, TX: Won a $115,421,582 fixed‑price‑incentive task order to provide T‑38 maintenance and O&M, delivering companion training aircraft for B‑2 and U‑2 pilots and adversary assets for F‑22 units at Beale, Holloman, Langley, Tyndall, and Whiteman AFBs. The contract sustains high‑end pilot proficiency and adversary air training through January 2030.
• Northrup Grumman Systems Corp., Oklahoma City, OK: Awarded a $35,057,531 firm‑fixed‑price contract for B‑2 tailpipe duct and cover‑assembly repair and overhaul at El Segundo, CA, and Oklahoma City, OK. This work is critical to long‑term supportability and mission availability of the U.S. stealth bomber fleet.
• Vectrus Systems LLC, Colorado Springs, CO: Received a $43,607,101 firm‑fixed‑price modification (Option Period Two) for base operations support at Naval Station Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, raising the total contract value to $131,261,821. Services cover facilities, utilities, and base support for joint operations at a strategically important maritime location.
• Bell Boeing Joint Project Office, Amarillo, TX: Awarded a $10,242,291 cost‑plus‑fixed‑fee modification to continue maintenance, logistics, and program management support for V‑22 Osprey modification and retrofit programs across Air Force, Marine Corps, and Navy fleets. The award supports configuration upgrades and fleet sustainment at multiple depots and fleet sites through November 2026.
• BAE Systems Land & Armaments, Minneapolis, MN: Received a $23,298,840 firm‑fixed‑price modification for MK 41 Vertical Launching System (VLS) canister and ancillary equipment production, combining buys for the U.S. Navy (48%) and Japan (52%) under FMS. The canisters support deployment of SM‑series, ESSM, and other missiles, bolstering AAW and BMD capabilities for both U.S. and Japanese surface fleets.
• BAE Systems Jacksonville Ship Repair LLC, Jacksonville, FL: Awarded a $26,447,362 cost‑plus‑award‑fee modification to perform Post‑Shakedown Availability work on a Littoral Combat Ship at Mayport, FL. PSA work fixes trial‑discovered issues and completes deferred modernization, improving near‑term LCS mission readiness.
• Crowley Government Services Inc., Jacksonville, FL: Received a $62,398,506 firm‑fixed‑price contract to operate and maintain six U.S. government‑owned T‑AGOS ocean surveillance and T‑AGM missile range instrumentation ships worldwide (USNS Victorious, Able, Effective, Loyal, Impeccable, and Howard O. Lorenzen). These vessels provide undersea surveillance and instrumentation support vital to anti‑submarine warfare and missile test ranges.
• Kellogg Brown & Root Services Inc. (KBR), Houston, TX:
  • Nov. 24: Awarded a $30,236,090 IDIQ modification bridging base operations support services at Naval Support Activity Bahrain (total contract value now $228,461,245), supporting fleet and joint operations in a key Gulf hub.
  • Nov. 28: Received a separate $30,236,090 bridge‑mod for the same NSA Bahrain BOS contract, extending support to December 2026 and maintaining continuity of operations in the U.S. Fifth Fleet AOR.
• Government Marketing and Procurement LLC, Wimberley, TX: Awarded a max $100,000,000 IDIQ for radiology equipment, components, and accessories for Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps, and federal civilian agencies. This multi‑service contract strengthens medical imaging capabilities across the defense health system and deployed care facilities.
• SCI Technology, Huntsville, AL: Received a $42,591,163 firm‑fixed‑price contract for drive controllers for the Army, under a sole‑source justification. These high‑reliability components are likely tied to key ground combat or support systems where form‑fit‑function replacement and performance are critical.
• Vinyl Technology LLC, Monrovia, CA: Awarded a $16,655,720 option‑year modification on an IDIQ for advanced‑technology anti‑gravity (G‑suit) garments for the Air Force. The suits protect pilots from high‑G maneuvers, sustaining performance and safety in advanced fighter and bomber operations.
• Vectrus Systems LLC, Colorado Springs, CO: Awarded a $43,607,101 option‑year mod for BOS at Guantanamo Bay (as above), plus earlier BOS contracts you already logged for Bahrain and other sites—together underscoring Vectrus’s growing footprint in expeditionary and overseas base support.

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🌐 Policy, Geopolitical & Legal Developments

• Russia accidentally destroys its only way of sending astronauts to space (Baikonur launch pad damage): A Soyuz MS‑28 launch carrying NASA astronaut Chris Williams and two Roscosmos cosmonauts to the ISS badly damaged Russia’s only crew‑rated launch pad at Baikonur Cosmodrome. Footage showed part of the pad collapsing into the exhaust trench, and analysts warn that repairs to cabling, sensors, and structures could take considerable time, temporarily leaving Russia without an operational human‑spaceflight launch complex for the first time since 1961. Roscosmos insists backup components exist and that restoration will be swift, but the incident underscores Russia’s fragile launch infrastructure.​
• NASA astronaut Chris Williams, crewmates arrive at space station: Soyuz MS‑28 successfully delivered NASA’s Chris Williams and Roscosmos cosmonauts Sergey Kud‑Sverchkov and Sergei Mikaev to the ISS, raising the onboard crew to 10 for a two‑week overlap. Launch occurred from Baikonur, followed by a two‑orbit, three‑hour rendezvous and docking to the Rassvet module, kicking off joint Expedition 73/74 operations that will include maintenance, microgravity experiments, and Earth‑observation campaigns despite the damage to the launch pad back on Earth.​
• Europe is struggling to compete in the second space race: The Economist argues that Europe is at risk of falling behind in the “second space race,” as American, Chinese, and commercial players accelerate launch cadence, mega‑constellations, and military space integration. With ESA ministers meeting to set a new three‑year budget—targeting at least €22 billion—officials warn that slow procurement, fragmented national programs, and launch bottlenecks threaten Europe’s strategic autonomy. Governments are finally taking action, but whether this new funding and reform push is enough to close the gap remains an open question.​
• From Saturn to the Moon: European Space Agency’s €22 billion plan to catch up in space race: ESA secured €22.1 billion in fresh commitments for the next three years and laid out priorities ranging from a potential Enceladus lander to expanded Earth‑observation missions and new human‑spaceflight opportunities. The roadmap contemplates a flagship mission to Saturn’s moon Enceladus to search for signs of life, advanced X‑ray observatories, and a stronger European role in lunar exploration, including German, French, and Italian astronauts heading to the Moon under Artemis partnerships. The package is presented as Europe’s bid to reassert itself in science, exploration, and strategic space infrastructure.​
• ESA and Norway plan Arctic Space Centre in Tromsø: ESA and Norway signed a letter of intent to explore establishing an ESA Arctic Space Centre in Tromsø, focused on Earth observation, navigation, and Arctic telecommunications. The centre would leverage Tromsø’s existing AWS ground segment and polar research ecosystem to monitor rapid climate change, support Arctic safety and security operations, and provide a hub for regional stakeholders, with a joint ESA–Norway working group due to present a scope and governance plan by 2026.​
• ESA DG says NASA confirms commitment to ExoMars rover: ESA Director General Josef Aschbacher announced that NASA has formally reconfirmed its contributions to the ExoMars Rosalind Franklin rover, despite proposed Trump‑era budget cuts that threatened to cancel US participation. NASA will provide a launch vehicle, radioisotope heaters, and braking rockets for the new landing platform, enabling ESA to keep a 2028 launch target for the life‑hunting Mars rover and salvaging a flagship transatlantic science partnership.​
• Europe Enters New Era of Space Militarization as ESA Approves First‑Ever Defense Program: For the first time, ESA will fund an explicitly military program—the European Responsive Sentinel (ERS) constellation—within a record $25.6B three‑year budget, marking a historic shift away from its “peaceful uses only” tradition. Backed by 23 member states, the new defense and security line will support sovereign ISR, secure comms, and early‑warning capabilities, with Germany emerging as the largest contributor and securing a German astronaut seat on a future Artemis lunar mission. Analysts say 2026 will be critical to turning ERS funding into a genuinely rapid‑response, autonomous European space defense architecture.​

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🛰️ Technology & Commercial Developments

• China set for first orbital launch and landing attempt this weekend with commercial Zhuque‑3 rocket: Chinese commercial launcher Landspace is preparing Zhuque‑3 for what could be China’s first orbital launch and booster landing attempt, with airspace closures pointing to a nighttime liftoff from Jiuquan. The stainless‑steel, methalox, Falcon‑9‑class vehicle is central to China’s push for reusable commercial heavy lift, and a successful flight would mark a major milestone for the country’s private launch sector as it races domestic rivals and Western incumbents.​
• ACME Space plans test run for balloon‑launched space factory next year:ACME Space is planning the first test of its Hyperion Orbital Factory Vehicle, a balloon‑launched microgravity manufacturing platform that uses a hydrogen balloon and a returnable launcher to deliver up to ~200 kg to LEO. Targeting 2026 drop and engine tests ahead of 2027 commercial operations, ACME aims to offer in‑orbit manufacturing capacity for high‑value products like protein crystals and optical fiber, betting that a balloon‑plus‑small‑launcher architecture can slash costs and open a new market for on‑orbit production.​​
• James Webb spots new flare from Milky Way’s supermassive black hole (Sagittarius A*):Using JWST’s mid‑infrared instruments, astronomers observed a 40‑minute flare from Sagittarius A*, filling a longstanding “gap” between radio and near‑infrared measurements of the black hole’s outbursts. The new data suggest that flare emission extends cleanly into the mid‑IR and will help constrain models of how magnetic reconnection near the event horizon accelerates electrons and drives these eruptions, sharpening understanding of black-hole feeding and feedback in our own galaxy.​
• Elon Musk and James Cameron find middle ground on space and AI: In a recent conversation, Elon Musk and director James Cameron agreed that, despite political differences, they share concerns about AI as a potential existential risk and a strong enthusiasm for human space exploration. Musk emphasized AI’s potential to usher in “sustainable abundance” if properly controlled, while Cameron highlighted the darker scenarios his films explore, with both arguing that serious governance, safety work, and continued space expansion must go hand‑in‑hand with rapid technological progress.
• Space, tech and growth leadership moves across the market: Washington Technology highlights a wave of leadership changes across growth‑oriented gov/space contractors, including new presidents and CTOs tasked with scaling AI, modeling, and SDA products. Moves include Slingshot Aerospace bringing in an AI veteran to steer space‑domain‑awareness data and analytics strategy, and ThinkTek elevating a former Booz Allen leader to president to expand its space‑related research and growth engine—underscoring how AI‑driven space and defense analytics are becoming core to federal market competition.​
• Cutting‑Edge Space Tech Uncovers Major Lithium Target in Quebec: Australian startup Fleet Space used its AI‑driven satellite exploration platform to dramatically expand the estimated size of a lithium deposit in Quebec, now pegged at roughly 329 million tonnes of lithium oxide. By combining hyperspectral/multispectral imaging, lidar topography and machine learning, Fleet rapidly narrowed drilling targets and mapped alteration zones from orbit, demonstrating how “space‑based prospecting” can slash the time and cost of discovering critical minerals needed for EV batteries and energy transition.​
• Scientists say using space tech to detect autism is child’s play (University of Strathclyde): An interdisciplinary team at Strathclyde adapted analysis techniques originally developed for satellite networks to study how young children play a simple iPad game, revealing distinct motor‑planning patterns in autistic vs. non‑autistic children. Using methods from space‑system network analysis, researchers found autistic children complete fewer, less integrated movement sequences, suggesting digital play‑based tools could support earlier autism identification and more tailored interventions while also feeding insights back into space‑network research.​
• The biggest European spacetech deals in H1 2025: Tech.eu’s roundup shows European spacetech raising substantial capital across the stack, with major rounds for launchers (Isar Aerospace, Orbex), satellite and payload players (EnduroSat, Space Forge, Look Up), and infrastructure/SSA/optical comms startups. Together these deals illustrate a maturing “full‑stack” ecosystem—covering rockets, buses, EO constellations, propulsion, ground infrastructure and space‑as‑a‑service models—while also highlighting how dual‑use and space‑heritage tech (e.g., lasers, CO₂ systems) is spilling into defence, climate and critical‑infrastructure markets.​

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💭 A Word From Christophe Bosquillon

The European Space Agency (ESA) recently presented the Thales Alenia Space Italy-led consortium for its lunar lander programme, Argonaut, to consist of three main elements: the Lunar Descent Element (LDE), the Cargo Platform Element, and the payload. LDE, the lander, has a height of six metres, a diameter of 4.5 metres, and a launch mass of nearly 10 000 kg. It can carry roughly 1500 kg to the lunar surface and is designed to land with an accuracy of at least 250 metres for the first flight. 

Thales Alenia Space TAS-Italy, prime contractor, leads a consortium made of TAS-France, OHB AG (Germany), TAS-UK, and Nammo Space (UK). TAS-Italy, end to end system integrator, includes assembly integration and testing activities; TAS-France is responsible for the design, development, and validation of the lander data handling sub-system, including middleware software, and for procurement of component equipment including on-board computers; TAS-UK is in charge of the lander propulsion subsystem development, and of the procurement of main components, such as propellant tanks and thruster. OHB (Germany) guarantees the engineering of key components: lander guidance, navigation and control, electrical power systems, and telecommunications subsystem. OHB further takes care of the procurement of its component equipment: solar array, batteries, LIDAR, and series of transponder. Nammo Space (UK) covers the design and procurement of the main engine of the Argonaut lander propulsion subsystem.

The Argonaut other two elements, the Cargo Platform Element, and the Payload, are being developed in parallel to the lander. For starters, in July 2025, Venturi Astrolab from France announced that it will be building Mona Luna as the lunar rover to ride with the Argonaut mission. The European Space Agency aims to launch Argonaut on an Ariane 6 rocket and land safely on the Moon in the 2030's. While major space powers keep racing, ESA aims to establish resilience in sovereign European space launch and Moon landing. To build capabilities, launch and land successfully one careful step at a time, not to score a ranking, but to transform series of missions into permanent infrastructure and a sustainable lunar presence for machines and humans alike.  

P.S.: the European Space Agency concluded its Ministerial with a record budget increase, further tackling space security: €22.1B in total member states’ contributions represent a 32% increase over the 2022 level (17% once adjusted for inflation). We’ll deep dive in this topic next week – stay tuned. 

Have a great space week ahead!

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🎤 Our Next Guest: Dr. Joel Mozer

Joel Mozer has watched sunspot regions larger than Jupiter release energy equivalent to billions of nuclear weapons. He's also sat in rooms where planners try to distinguish a solar storm from an enemy attack, knowing they might have minutes to respond. As the first Chief Scientist of the United States Space Force, he directed ANGELS, a mission that taught satellites to inspect other satellites without human control. That capability is now operational. He also built planning frameworks for a military branch that didn't exist until 2019, including investments in technologies that won't mature for decades.

Key topics:

• Why you might wake up with every GPS satellite offline and not know if it was a weapon or the sun
• How geomagnetic storms could provide perfect cover for military operations
• His argument that precise predictions of future operating environments guarantee surprise
• The tension between supporting ground warfighters and protecting commerce in cislunar space

Watch Joel's YouTube preview Tuesday on the Sirotin Intelligence YouTube channel. Full interview drops Thursday.

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